BJP’s West Bengal Sweep Reopens Door For Teesta Deal Even As Ganga Treaty Deadline Nears

New Delhi: The BJP’s victory in the West Bengal assembly elections has quietly altered one of the most persistent fault lines in India–Bangladesh diplomacy: the politics of shared rivers.

For over a decade, negotiations on the Teesta River were constrained less by technical disagreement between New Delhi and Dhaka than by resistance from the government of West Bengal. With the BJP now in power in the state as well as at the Centre, speculations are rife as to whether the riverine puzzle may finally be in place -- just as the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty approaches its December 2026 renewal deadline at the Farakka Barrage.

The timing is significant. In Dhaka, new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has signalled that resolving long-pending water issues with India will be a priority for his government. In New Delhi, the BJP has long maintained that a fair and sustainable Teesta agreement is integral to deepening bilateral cooperation, a position reiterated through the India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission and successive technical engagements. What was missing was the political alignment within India’s Centre-state structure.

For years, outgoing West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee argued that North Bengal did not have “a drop of water to spare”, effectively stalling a draft Teesta arrangement negotiated in 2011. Her position underscored how transboundary water diplomacy can be shaped as much by state-level ecological anxieties as by national strategic considerations. The BJP’s ascent in Kolkata removes that veto, but it also transfers responsibility: any agreement now must satisfy both diplomatic expectations in Dhaka and water security concerns in North Bengal.

On Tuesday, ahead of an official visit to China, Bangladesh Foreign Khalilur Rahman said that Bangladesh’s Teesta project would “definitely” be discussed during his trip.

When asked whether Dhaka still had hopes for the long-stalled Teesta water-sharing agreement with India — especially after the BJP came to power in West Bengal, by a possible removal of the earlier obstacle posed by Banerjee – Rahman said that Bangladesh would not sit idle while waiting for India to act.

“Look, a government has not yet been formed in West Bengal, and what they think or what they will do is for them to say,” Bdnews24.com quoted the Foreign Minister as saying. “It is not my job to read their minds. We hope that the agreement reached at that time (2011) can be ‘considered’ again under the current circumstances. But we cannot just sit and wait for that. We have our own work to do.”

Meanwhile, The Business Standard news website of Bangladesh cited Amena Mohsin, Professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, as saying that Dhaka would be watching whether India would actually be moving forward with the agreement.

“For years, the central government in New Delhi has claimed that the Teesta water-sharing treaty was stuck solely because of Mamata Banerjee’s opposition,” Mohsin said. “Now that this political hurdle has ostensibly been removed, it will be a major point for Bangladesh to watch whether they actually move forward with the agreement. This is a litmus test for the new administration’s approach toward its neighbour. However, this transition requires India to be extra sensitive toward our domestic context.”

India and Bangladesh negotiated a near-final draft of the Teesta water-sharing agreement during the visit of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Dhaka in 2011. The deal fell through at the last minute after opposition from Banerjee, who argued that North Bengal would face water scarcity. This moment effectively froze Teesta progress for over a decade.

With Narendra Modi assuming of the Prime Minister in 2014, India-Bangladesh ties deepened significantly, including land boundary agreement, connectivity, and security cooperation. However, Teesta remained unresolved because water is a state subject and West Bengal’s consent was essential.

The India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission continued technical discussions on data sharing, flood alerts, and minor rivers.

Since 2018, Dhaka began publicly expressing impatience over the Teesta delay. Bangladesh explored basin management proposals with China, raising strategic concerns in India given the Teesta’s proximity to the Siliguri Corridor. Banerjee reiterated that “there is no surplus water” in Teesta to share.

In 2021, with the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty due to expire in December 2026, officials from both sides began internal assessments. Signed in 1996, the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty governs dry-season flow releases at the Farakka Barrage between India and Bangladesh and has so far been a stable basis for cooperation. Climate change, erratic monsoons, sedimentation, and rising water demand on both sides made it clear the renewal would require updated hydrological thinking around the Farakka Barrage.

Over the next three years, India and Bangladesh increased cooperation on real-time flood data sharing, riverbank erosion studies, and discussions on sharing waters of smaller common rivers like Manu, Khowai and Feni. However, the Teesta issue remained politically blocked.

Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading commentator on transboundary water issues, said that, in 2011, Banerjee had come to power for the first time and she did not want to create an impression among the people that she would give the Teesta waters away just like that.

“There was a rift between Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the Congress that led the UPA government at the Centre,” Sinha told ETV Bharat. “She wanted to show that she can resist the Centre and that she was a strong regional leader.”

He said that the Teesta flows from North Bengal and its water is very critical for people in districts like Jalpaiguri.

He expressed the view that, though the BJP has come to power, it does not mean that the Teesta agreement will be automatically signed.

“The issue is not about which political party is in power,” Sinha said. “The issue is about the people of North Bengal and their right to first use of the Teesta water.”

He said that the priority right now is the renegotiation of the Ganga Water Treaty which is set to expire by the end of this year.

“Discussions for the Ganga Water Treaty renewal will start soon,” Sinha said. “If the Ganga Water Treaty renewal works out well, then both sides can start work on the Teesta issue that will make people of both countries happy.”

He said that since Bangladesh realised that the Teesta deal was not going through, they approached China to develop their side of the river.

To sum up, the BJP’s ascent to power in West Bengal, aligned with the BJP-led central government, removes an important political block to India-Bangladesh riverine negotiations that existed under Banerjee, particularly over Teesta. Combined with a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government in Dhaka focused on renewing the Ganga Water Treaty and resolving shared water issues, there is potential now for progress on long-standing disputes.

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