IMD Forecasts Cooler Days, Warmer Nights: November To Bring Mixed Weather Across India
IMD predicts cooler days, warmer nights, and patchy rainfall across India in November due to weak La Niña and multiple weather systems.
Published : October 31, 2025 at 7:12 PM IST
New Delhi: As India progresses into November, most of northwest, central and western India are predicted to experience below normal daytime temperatures, while nights are likely to remain warmer than usual, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said in a virtual press briefing on Friday that below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, while above-normal daytime temperatures are anticipated over the western Himalayan region, northeast India and parts of the southern peninsula.
Above-normal minimum temperatures are predicted to be above normal across most parts of the country, except a few areas of northwest India, which may have normal to slightly below normal minimum temperatures.
Weak La Niña Conditions May Persist Until February 2026
These trends are being attributed by IMD to weak La Niña conditions which are presently occurring over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina which is typically associated with cooler global temperatures and changes to rainfall, is expected to persist through December 2025 to February 2026 before beginning to gradually transition to a neutral state by January-March 2026.
"There is about a 55% probability that ENSO-neutral conditions will develop early next year," Mohapatra said. EENSO-neutral is defined as when neither state of El Niño nor La Niña is present, during which sea surface temperatures in the Pacific would be near normal.
Rainfall Outlook: Mixed Picture Across India
IMD’s monthly outlook indicates that most parts of India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall in November, while northwest India and the southern peninsula may see below-normal showers.
India had already seen an exceptionally wet October, recording 112.1 mm of rainfall, which is 49% above normal and the second-highest since 2001, according to Mohapatra. The unusual surge was due to four low-pressure systems, two of which intensified into cyclonic storms, along with four Western Disturbances passing over north India.
Rajasthan to Get Relief from Rain After November 5
In Rajasthan, gloomy skies and intermittent rain have caused inconvenience for residents in recent days. For two to three days, parts of the state, including Kota and Udaipur divisions, saw continuous drizzle and a lack of sunshine, leading to a spike in humidity and a dip in daytime temperatures
However, IMD has forecast dry weather over western Rajasthan starting November 5, providing some relief. Until then, light to moderate rain is expected in parts of Udaipur and Kota divisions, where Jagpura in Banswara recorded the highest rainfall of 57 mm in the past 24 hours
The Jaipur Meteorological Centre predicts partly cloudy skies till November 4, followed by a rise in daytime temperatures. The city recorded a maximum of 24.3°C and a minimum of 21.1°C on Friday, and temperatures are expected to climb up to 31°C by next week.
Madhya Pradesh Braces for More Rain
In Madhya Pradesh, the weather remains unsettled due to the combined impact of three weather systems: a depression in the Arabian Sea, a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal, and a western disturbance approaching from the north.
The IMD said a well-marked low-pressure area, the remnant of severe cyclonic storm “Motha,” is currently over northwest Jharkhand and adjoining areas, moving toward Bihar, where it is likely to weaken in the next 12 hours.
Another cyclonic circulation over the South Myanmar coast and North Andaman Sea is likely to generate a new low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours. This system could further intensify rainfall in parts of central and eastern India for the next four days.
A new Western Disturbance is also expected to impact the Western Himalayan region from November 3, potentially leading to heavy rainfall across northern Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring regions.
Changing Weather Signals a Transitional Phase
Meteorologists note that November marks a transition period between the retreating monsoon and the onset of winter. During this time, Western Disturbances play a key role in shaping temperature trends and rainfall across northern and central India.
Mohapatra explained, "The combination of weak La Niña and active western disturbances will bring significant variability in temperature and rainfall patterns over the next few weeks."
While farmers in rain-fed regions may benefit from late-season showers, continued rainfall could delay the Rabi sowing season in some central and northern districts.
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