Bangladesh At Breaking Point: Implications For India And South Asian Stability

New Delhi: As Bangladesh heads towards parliamentary elections in February 2026, the death of Sharif Osman Hadi has become a flashpoint for violence that risks spilling across borders.

The targeting of minorities, Indian diplomatic interests and major media outlets highlights how Bangladesh’s internal political breakdown could rapidly translate into a regional security challenge for India and South Asia.

On December 13, Hadi, an anti-Indian radical leader and spokesperson of the anti-Sheikh Hasina Inquilab Manch, went into a coma after being shot at by masked gunmen in a busy Dhaka locality. He was airlifted to Singapore for treatment but died on Thursday night.

Hadi’s death has since become a powerful mobilising symbol for extremist and anti-India groups, triggering violence that has targeted minorities, Indian diplomatic missions and sections of the media, just weeks ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections scheduled for February 2026.

The unrest marks a dangerous escalation in Bangladesh’s already fragile political environment following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August last year. What initially appeared to be a domestic power struggle has now taken on clear communal and geopolitical dimensions, with direct consequences for India–Bangladesh relations and for security and stability across South Asia.

The violence following Hadi’s death has been marked by alarming brutality. The lynching and burning alive of Dipu Chandra Das, a Hindu garment factory worker accused of blasphemy, has underscored the vulnerability of religious minorities amid rising radicalisation. Attacks on Indian missions and interests signal a shift from internal political agitation to overtly anti-India mobilisation, while the vandalisation of prominent media houses such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo points to an effort to silence independent voices and shape public narratives through fear.

Together, these incidents suggest the emergence of a volatile mix of extremist ideology, street power and political opportunism. The use of Hadi’s death as a rallying cry has allowed radical groups to frame violence as resistance against secularism, minorities and India, deepening polarisation in the country.

The unrest comes at a critical juncture, with Bangladesh preparing for parliamentary elections in February 2026. The violence raises serious doubts about whether the polls can be conducted in a free, fair and peaceful manner. Intimidation of media outlets, communal violence and attacks on foreign missions point to a deteriorating security environment that could undermine the credibility of the electoral process.

A disputed or violent election outcome would deepen political fragmentation and risk prolonging instability. For India, this scenario would complicate engagement with Dhaka regardless of who emerges in power, as questions of legitimacy and governance would loom large. A weakened or polarised government in Bangladesh would also be less capable of controlling extremist elements or honouring bilateral security commitments.

For India, the developments strike at the core of a relationship that has long been a cornerstone of its Neighbourhood First policy. Over the past decade, India and Bangladesh built a multifaceted partnership encompassing counterterrorism cooperation, border management, connectivity projects, trade expansion and energy interdependence. Dhaka’s decisive action under Hasina against India-focused insurgent groups operating from its territory was widely seen as a turning point in bilateral ties.

The current turmoil threatens to unravel several of these gains. Attacks on Indian diplomatic missions undermine the basic norms of state responsibility and complicate New Delhi’s ability to engage openly with political actors in Dhaka. The surge in anti-India rhetoric risks hardening public sentiment, reducing the political space for any future Bangladeshi government to pursue pragmatic cooperation with New Delhi.

Earlier this week, Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Riaz Hamidullah was summoned by the Ministry of External Affairs and apprised of India’s strong concerns at the deteriorating security environment in Bangladesh. His attention was drawn, in particular, to the activities of some extremist elements who have announced plans to create a security situation around the Indian High Commission in Dhaka.

“India completely rejects the false narrative sought to be created by extremist elements regarding certain recent events in Bangladesh,” the External Affairs Ministry stated. “It is unfortunate that the interim government has neither conducted a thorough investigation nor shared meaningful evidence with India regarding the incidents. India has close and friendly relations with the people of Bangladesh rooted in the liberation struggle, and strengthened through various developmental and people-to-people initiatives. We are in favour of peace and stability in Bangladesh and have consistently called for free, fair, inclusive and credible elections, conducted in a peaceful atmosphere. We expect the interim government to ensure the safety of missions and posts in Bangladesh in keeping with its diplomatic obligations.”

In the context of the current situation, Saifur Rahman Tapan, a Dhaka-based journalist, explained that the political space in Bangladesh is divided into two camps – pro-liberation and anti-liberation.

“Since the Awami League (led by Hasina) was at the forefront of the Liberation War, it is seen as the leader of the pro-liberation camp,” Tapan told ETV Bharat over the phone from Dhaka. “The anti-liberation camp was led by the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal under ASM Abdul Rob. But, after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, Zia-ur-Rahman came to the fore of the anti-liberation camp.”

He further stated that the radical Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami has always been in the anti-liberation camp.

"Those who were engaged in Thursday night's vandalism belonged to the anti-liberation camp,” Tapan said. “The anti-liberation camp thinks that those who promote secularism and Bengali nationalism are pro-Awami League. They believe that the media is promoting the Awami League’s ideology.”

Hadi, he pointed out, had called The Daily Star and Prothom Alo media houses 'cultural fascists'. Apart from these two media houses, he said that Chhayanaut, an institution devoted to Bengali culture, also came under attack in the current violence.

“The anti-liberation camp calls such media houses and Chhayanaut fascist-enablers,” Tapan said. “The government and all other parties are favouring this type of people (those in the anti-liberation camp). The government has largely been inactive when the hooligans attacked The Daily Star and Prothom Alo offices.”

He said that the anti-liberation camp aligns The Daily Star, Prothom Alo and Chhayanaut with India.

“Following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the Awami League has been absent from Bangladesh politics as it has been banned,” Tapan said. “But its presence is very much felt as it is seen as the only opposition party.”

According to an Indian expert on the politics and economy of Bangladesh who spoke to ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity, the recent developments in Bangladesh are not isolated events.

“All these happened under the guidance of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Chinese intelligence agencies,” the expert said. “While businesses from Bangladesh are going to China, the country’s security is in the hands of Pakistan. This is a huge security threat for India. This is not a good sign.”

As Bangladesh approaches a critical election amid chaos and radicalisation, the choices made in the coming weeks will not only determine its domestic future but also influence the stability of South Asia’s eastern flank. In that sense, the crisis is not just about Bangladesh’s internal politics – it is about the durability of regional order in a neighbourhood where instability rarely remains contained within national borders.