Analysis: As Bengal Chooses BJP, Will Jharkhand Continue To Block Saffron Sweep In East India?
Political observers are mulling the possible saffron siege of this lone-standing opposition bastion in eastern India that stands sandwiched between BJP-ruled states, reports Upendra Kumar.
Published : May 6, 2026 at 3:52 PM IST
Ranchi: What is going to be the impact of the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the neighbouring state of Jharkhand? This is the question that has started doing the rounds as Jharkhand is the lone Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bastion that stands sandwiched between the BJP-ruled Odisha, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The West Bengal victory has given a fresh impetus to the BJP’s goal of eastern expansion. The victory is bound to stir the political pot in the neighbouring Jharkhand, which becomes all the more important for the opposition parties in power there.
There is considerable pressure on the Hemant Soren-led government. In recent months, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s (JMM) leader’s frequent visits to Delhi, internal speculation within the ruling alliance in the state and complaints about delays in the release of central funds have set tongues wagging despite the Congress repeatedly claiming that the JMM-led alliance in the state is 'rock-solid'. But the detractors continue to point towards the disagreements between the Congress and the JMM over the Rajya Sabha and Assam elections. Furthermore, several Congress leaders have questioned their own government on several issues.
This has led to speculations about the state being put under a saffron siege. However, JMM’s Central General Secretary, Supriyo Bhattacharya, compares Jharkhand to a kiwifruit. He said, "Kiwi is most effective in tackling platelet deficiency in the body. The fruit is brown on the outside and light green on the inside. This green colour increases platelets.”
He underlined, "Despite being surrounded by the BJP governments in the neighbouring states, the JMM will work like kiwifruit to increase the platelets of the opposition."
Reacting to the Bengal election results, Congress Vice President Satish Paul Munjani said, "The BJP has won in the state through discrimination, religious frenzy and misuse of agencies." He said that despite the BJP-ruled states surrounding Jharkhand, the saffron party's strategy will not succeed in Jharkhand as the Grand Alliance government is "moving forward with the interests of tribals, indigenous people, women, farmers and all sections of society in mind".
Jharkhand’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) Secretary, Ramkumar Yadav, feels that all the opposition parties will unite to prevent the BJP from coming to power in Jharkhand. He said that the situation was different in West Bengal, where the BJP seized power with the help of agencies and paramilitary forces. "But this will not be allowed to happen in Jharkhand," he claimed.
Political analysts believe that the encirclement of Jharkhand by the BJP governments in all its neighbouring states is likely to have a direct impact on Jharkhand's internal politics.
A chronicler of political developments in Jharkhand, Madhukar, pointed out that while Jharkhand may appear as a political island on the map, the BJP’s victories in its neighbouring states will have only a limited impact.
“Hemant Soren (JMM) and the BJP have different voter bases here. The BJP had previously attempted to bring Hemant Soren to its side through pressure from central agencies, but a JMM-BJP alliance would not be suitable for long-term political success,” he said.
He feels that after the Bengal elections, the BJP will intensify its efforts to reduce the power of regional parties in other states like Jharkhand. “But the BJP's chances of achieving significant success in Jharkhand in the near future are slim,” he said.
Stating that the BJP’s leadership will undoubtedly be bothered by the lack of a government in Jharkhand, a state rich in natural resources, he said it is quite possible that the image of the Hemant government could be tarnished to gain power in the state.
He further said that it's also possible that the central government may delay or withhold funds for public welfare schemes, citing various reasons to make the Soren government feel pressure on the economic front as well.
He, however, underlined that the biggest challenge for the JMM-RJD and Congress will be maintaining unity against the BJP, which has strong resources. “The BJP will continue to explore the possibility of dissatisfaction among MLAs and defection in the state, which will increase the risk of political instability,” he said.
The experienced chronicler further said that maintaining control over the tribal vote bank will be central to Jharkhand politics, which is Hemant Soren's strength. Consequently, Hemant Soren will strongly raise issues such as land and local rights, domicile policy, control over mineral resources and the Sarna Dharma Code. Meanwhile, issues such as unemployment, migration, education and health remain pressing issues, requiring the government to implement appropriate schemes to deliver concrete results to the public.
Observers say that it remains to be seen whether Chief Minister Soren will continue with the politics of 'Jharkhand will not bow down' in the coming days, or will he move forward by adopting the Naveen Patnaik model of neighbouring Odisha and maintaining a soft and balanced relationship with the Centre after assessing the current 'political reality'.
This time, the JMM also tried its luck in the Assam Assembly elections by fielding 17 candidates among the 126 assembly seats. The JMM received a good response, with one of its candidates coming second and 10 coming third in their respective constituencies.
Jharkhand's importance in the context of Eastern India is crucial for national politics. This state, with 14 Lok Sabha seats, could serve as a base for the INDI Alliance in the 2029 general elections. If the Hemant Soren government remains stable and demonstrates progress, the opposition will gain a strong presence in the east.
Conversely, if the alliance breaks or the government falls, the BJP's ‘eastern sweep’ will be complete. Jharkhand is strategically important due to its mineral wealth and its growing role in the country's energy security and green transition.
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