Ahead Of Tamil Nadu Elections, Alliance Arithmetic Emerges As Central Political Question

By S. Hussain

Chennai: Ahead of the Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026, as the political discussions are heating up, alliance arithmetic has emerged as the central political question, as parties weigh who to align with and on what terms in a fluid, high-stakes landscape.

On the outset, with regard to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), BJP and AIADMK are clear on their partnership, but it is not yet clear which other parties will join the alliance that is running the government at the centre. While prominent leaders like T.T.V. Dhinakaran and O. Panneerselvam who had openly came of NDA, suspense remains about their plans and course of action.

On the other side, even though the ruling DMK and its allies project a united front, the final shape of the alliance and seat-sharing equations may become clear only closer to polling.

Following speculations in political circles that the Congress party may ally with the actor Vijay's newly formed TVK party, Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin put a stop to it by stating, "The hand (Congress symbol) will not leave us."

Meanwhile, a negotiation group within the Congress has been formed to handle alliance talks. Within the party, one section argues that if the Congress wants to win more seats, it must firmly stay with the DMK-led alliance, while another section contends that if the party wants more votes and a real share in power, it should insist on a stronger, more conditional alliance understanding.

This internal divergence has triggered intense debate within the state unit. Adding to the churn, Praveen Chakravarty, Chairman - Professionals' Congress & Data Analytics, considered close to Rahul Gandhi, recently stirred controversy when he stated that the state "has the highest outstanding debt of all states."

However, adding further weight to Praveen Chakraborty's statement, Girish Chodankar, the in-charge of the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee, is understood to have indicated that the party will not shy away from demanding its due share in governance, signalling that a significant section of the state leadership strongly prefers power-sharing in any future alliance.

Amid this, Congress MP Manickam Thakur has been openly speaking in media that that every party in Tamil Nadu commands its own vote base. He also stated that no party can win alone in Tamil Nadu and that alliances are inevitable, but also stressed that it is "not just about power" while simultaneously saying that the time has come to discuss sharing of power.

File photo of Congress MP Manickam Thakur (ETV Bharat)

Political observers see his comments as a call to formalise power-sharing terms within the alliance framework. Sensing the implications, former DMK MP M.M. Abdulla responded on social media, pointing out that for over a year and a half, several pro-Hindutva social media groups had been pushing the narrative of a Congress–DMK rift and an alternative government in Tamil Nadu.

He argued that in the current scenario, the DMK-led alliance is not on the verge of collapse, and that leaders such as Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) president Thol. Thirumavalavan in the alliance have clearly stated that their primary objective is to defeat the RSS–BJP forces.

According to him, the renewed noise about internal differences appears designed to create confusion within the otherwise strong DMK-led alliance.

Fiel photo of former DMK MP M.M. Abdulla (ETV Bharat)

Abdulla further suggested that the fresh round of debate was part of an RSS-backed attempt to sow discord, and questioned why such narratives were resurfacing now when the alliance partners were working in close coordination on the ground. In this context, he underlined that the official line of the Congress remains to speak strongly against communal forces and to follow the stand articulated by negotiation group head Girish Chodankar, portraying this as the party's formal position.

Reacting to Thakur's remarks about sharing power with the DMK, DMK MP D.K.S. Ilangovan told a TV channel that a committee formed by the Tamil Nadu Congress has been authorised to hold alliance talks. "They are the ones who should talk to us. Who is Manickam Thakur? He is neither the state president nor a national leader. Why should we respond to what he says? Only the official committee formed by the Tamil Nadu Congress should speak. All decisions will be taken only after those talks at the appropriate level," he said.

File photo of DMK MP D.K.S. Ilangovan (ETV Bharat)

When asked about Chodankar's remarks on sharing power in government, Ilangovan said such statements are made to strengthen the party and satisfy its cadre, and reiterated that final decision will be taken only after formal discussions between the DMK and the authorised alliance negotiation group of the Congress.

For now, the sound of alliance negotiations is growing louder in Tamil Nadu, but it is still unclear who will ultimately heed which call.

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