By Ananth S
On 27th January 2025, shortly after his inauguration, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “The Iron Dome for America”, which revived the 1980s American military programme under then President Ronald Reagan called 'Star Wars' (officially named Strategic Defence Initiative). In pursuance of this order, recently, the US Defence department, has put out a concept paper and has invited various companies to be part of it.
Shorn of all its military jargon, the programme envisaged the creation of a space-based missile defence system that would shoot down any hostile missiles, especially nuclear missiles, even before they reach their targets. The ambitious programme aims to create a space based defence architecture that will protect the USA from next generation aerial attacks including ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missiles apart from creating a system that track and destroy enemy missiles when they are in their “boost” stage – i.e., just after launch and just before they achieve high speeds.
In fact, even before the collapse of the USSR, the two cold war powers had entered into treaties to reduce nuclear arms race, especially those missiles that use nuclear war heads: these include treaties like Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty that promised to eliminate the arsenal of mid range nuclear missiles with a range of 300 (or 482 kms) to 3400 miles (or about 5400 kms) by 1991 and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) that promised to reduce nuclear weapons in the possession of both the powers.
Ironically, it was as part of these negotiations that the USA promised territorial guarantee to Ukraine for surrendering its nuclear arsenal that came under its control when it gained its independence from the Russian Federation in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR. This changed scenarios led to the USA to shelve SDI in 1993.
Though the collapse of the USSR was the official reason, the huge cost overrun was another reason. The dominance of the USA in an unipolar world and the increased innovation by the private sector which increased exponentially with the importance of the internet and telecommunications revolutions meant little incentive for the USA to even think of any publicly funded initiatives – even as it got involved in a number of unwinnable wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan.
However, the recent decline of Russia after the Ukraine invasion and the rise of China have altered global strategic scenario. Moreover, the re-election of the mercurial Trump, first issues a statement and then tries to calibrate government policy seems to have opened new dimensions. It is in this context that the USA has announced its "golden dome".
In a video, while talking to the press, President Trump claims that Canada wants to be part of this plan and that such an ‘iron dome’ will protect the whole of USA, including Alaska; in other words, it would protect large parts of the North American Continent. Trump claims that the ambitious programme will be operational in three years, and he claims that it will cost US$175 billion. In contrast, the US Congressional Budget Office, an independent government body that reports to the US Congress, says that it may cost anywhere between US$162 to US$520 billions over a period of twenty years.
Of course, the actual cost of protecting a geographic space the size of the USA and Canada may be many times this early estimate. China and Russia immediately condemned it, claiming that it would lead to an arms race in space and its militarisation. As of now, the programme is nothing but a sort of science fiction hope or at best a vision for the future.
Star Wars: A Background
During Ronald Reagan’s time, the main threat to USA, was the USSR, which collapsed in 1991, which has now been replaced Russian Federation. In the present, China, rather than Russia, is expected to challenge US military and technological superiority in the very near future. At the time of their launches, both Ronald Reagan and President Trump claimed these programmes that are futuristic-oriented because it was in essence a space-based missile defence system would use a variety of modern weaponry to shoot down enemy missiles.
It was claimed in the 1980s that the SDI would use lasers to shoot down any incoming enemy missiles. In fact, many of the technologies that it claimed it would use did not even exist at that time. Ronald Reagan himself is stated to have claimed that it would take 20 years by the time it was implemented. President Trump, however, claims that it will be operational in three years. The “Star Wars” programme had to be abandoned after some time due to its high costs and the fact that the post-collapse of the Soviet Union altered strategic conditions, scenarios and goals. It was abandoned in the late 1990s due to huge budget overruns and the fact that the cold war ended.
Space Treaties & Militarisation of Space
The first and foremost consequence of the move by the USA is going to be a huge increase in the creation of military infrastructure in space. The lasting impact (at least till now) of the Second World War is that due to which killed nearly 6 to 7 crore people and caused damage that in today’s inflation adjusted rate that could be as high as over US$16 trillion was that under the auspices of the United Nations, the countries of the world agreed to various treaties including those that agreed that space was “res communes” or belonging to all.
The principle that underscores this is that it is part of “global commons”, which means that is not subject to exclusive ownership of any single state or individual. These include space, moon and other celestial objects. All these treaties go back to the United Nations General Assembly resolution 110 (II) dated 03 Nov 1947, which was also applicable to outer space. Based on this on Resolutions 1721 (XVI) dated 20 Dec 1961 and Resolution No. 1802 (XVII) of 14 Dec 1962 were passed unanimously by the members of the UNO and nine different aspects were resolved. These include among others that exploration and use of outer space shall be carried out for the benefit and interest of all humans and outer space and celestial bodies are free from exploration by all State on the basis of equality and in accordance with international law and outer space is beyond the claims of one nation and cannot be occupied by one country and all countries were to consider astronauts as envoys of humans in outer space and shall help those in distress.
Accordingly and in all over a period of time, a total of five different “space treaties” were signed by various countries over the years. All these are under the broad coordation of the United Nations Office for Outer Space (UNOOSA). The first and most important is referred to as the “Outer Space Treaty” (10 Oct 1967). The others include “the Rescue Agreement” (03 Dec 1968), the “Liability convention” (01 Sept 1972), the “Registration Convention” (15 Sept 1976) and the “Moon Agreement” (came into force on 11 July 1984).The legal principles underscoring these are laid down by various resolutions of the General Assembly of the UNO that became part of the more elaborate agreements that are referred to as “Declarations” which include: the “declaration of legal principles” (13 Dec 1963), the Broadcasting Principles (10 Dec 1983), “the Remote Sensing Principles (03 Dec 1986), “the nuclear power sources principles” (14 Dec 1992) and “the Benefits Declaration” (13 Dece 1996).
New Risks beyond Earth
Hence, the result of projects like “Golden Dome” is that since no major power wants to be left out, it is bound to launch an extremely expensive competitive race for supremacy that will now spread. Already, the fantasy-like claims by people like Elon Musk that he wants to build a colony on Mars is creating unease – which has only been eased when people realise that the task is impossible as of today and the near future.
Strictly speaking, any unilateral attempt to create private property is as of date not permissible. Of course, there is always a difference between dreams and reality. However, other risks abound: till date satellites that have been used for remote sensing and telecommunication. Countries often share important information that has larger global relevance and have followed the “registration declaration”, which requires countries to have a mechanism for countries to assist each other in identification of space objects.
Unfortunately, as military use of space becomes central to the claims of a country as part of their “national security”, this sharing of information is bound to be the first casualty since no country would like to provide any information that will help an opponent to identify their own satellites. Another problem is that the planet is bound to get over-crowded with satellites orbiting earth.
As at end of April 2025, there are an estimated 11,700 satellites that are revolving around the planet and of these about 10,000 are estimated to be active. An estimated 1000 to 2000 new satellites are launched annually making outer space extremely crowded and a potential source that could trigger large conflicts. These will increase and with it risks of conflicts between countries that will go out of the way, to hinder others’ satellites from orbiting thus increasing the possibility of an accident or intentional skirmish in outer space triggering a retaliation or war on the planet.
Unfortunately, pompous projects like “Golden Dome” which are at best more of a statement of vision or science fiction and at their worst meant to satisfy bloated egos often have very little success in the field. More problematically, proponents of such projects often miss out an important aspect: namely the ironies of risk.
As the famous German sociologist, Ulrich Beck, pointed out a nation need not be attacked from outside the borders or by using missiles launched by an enemy using outer space. Osama Bin Laden showed through his attack on the Twin Towers on 11 September 2001 that freshly loaded aeroplanes themselves can become potent missiles and cause extensive damage. Hence, the biggest challenge that the world faces today is that of protecting common resources like space without getting carried away is a difficult task - especially when impulsive rulers keen on winning elections and rewarding their wealthy supporters hold sway over populations that do not think about consequences are abundantly available.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
