Lok Sabha Election 2024 | Can BJP stoke a saffron gale in Bengal with CAA?

Kolkata: Narendra Modi has sought a promise from the people. He wants all 42 in his kitty. His lieutenant Amit Shah has also fixed a target, a tad low of 35. To achieve either, it is quite evident that they will leave no stone unturned. But in the end, can they? The question hangs heavy on West Bengal, whenever a discussion on the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the coming Lok Sabha elections, takes place. It is common that voting dynamics change with every version of an election.

The way people vote in the Assembly elections, is not always replicated in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP knows it all too well and party sources say, the saffron brigade is not just heavily banking on its prime USP - the Narendra Modi-factor - as its ace card in the elections.

The party knows, to repeat its best-ever figures of 18 seats in West Bengal, which it achieved in the 2019 elections or to go further, it needs more than the Modi charisma. For them, direct as well as indirect effects of the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) rules on the Matua population are as important as the law and order situation in the state since the Sandeshkhali incident blew off. The growing discontent among a section of Trinamool Congress supporters over allegations of rampant corruption and nepotism within the party, also provide BJP with the right amount of icing on the Bengal cake, which it intends to celebrate with after the results are declared on June 4.

By notifying the CAA rules, BJP has already splashed some variety in Bengal’s political rubicon. The party tasted the goods in the 2019 elections when it won the Lok Sabha seats of Ranaghat and Bongaon. It was a clear mandate in favour of a party, which was giving wings to the aspirations of a large chunk of people, the Matuas, whose eyes are fixed on only one thing – citizenship.

Matuas, a closely-knit Hindu religious sect of the Namasudra community or Dalits, was founded in the Faridpur district of Bangladesh by Harichand Thakur. Harichand had migrated to India after the partition and shifted base to Thakurnagar in North 24 Parganas district of Bengal and is known to have worked for uplifting the untouchables. Following Harichand's death, one of his sons Guruchand Thakur took over and is known for providing more stability and organisational backup to the sect.

In these parts of India, which share both land and riverine borders with Bangladesh, infiltration or influx is common. Shared language, food habits, customs and demography make it hard to distinguish among people. According to estimates, there are about two crore Matuas residing in India. The Matua Mahasangha or the apex council of the sect, however, put the figure at five crores. The difference in figures is highly contested, but has never stopped political parties from making a beeline for the Mahasangha to ensure support of the sect. It is now clear that Matuas practically decides the fortunes of at least three Lok Sabha, partly in two other constituencies and more than 35 Assembly seats, mostly located along the Indo-Bangla border.

Once BJP tasted success, it never went slack on the issues revolving around the Matuas. In 2021, when Bengal went to the Assembly polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Orakandi, Bangladesh. It was the PM's first state visit since the outbreak of the pandemic. On March 27 that year when Bengal went for the first among eight phases of elections, Modi was paying obeisance at a temple held dearly to the heart by the Matuas. Orakandi is the birthplace of Matua patriarch Harichand Thakur.

The message was loud and clear and BJP reaped the benefits by winning several Assembly seats in the Matua-belt. With the election season back, this time the CAA implementation could play a significant role, yet again, for the BJP in seats like Bongaon, Krishnanagar, Bongaon North, Barrackpore and Ranaghat. But, the Trinamool Congress also has its eyes set on the Matua pie.

Engaging with the Matuas has been a priority at every level of Trinamool Congress, right from the top. Mamata Banerjee, her nephew and Trinamool national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, a host of ministers and district presidents have always made it a point to keep the Matuas in their focus. And it has paid dividends. Once a steadfast ally of the Left, the Matuas have gradually shifted allegiance to the Trinamool as the visible proximity of Matua Mahasangha matriarch Binapani Devi, popularly known as Boro Ma and Mamata Banerjee, grew.

The Trinamool supremo was quick to acknowledge the shift in the community by integrating several members of the Mahasangh as well as members of Boro Ma's family, into her party fold. Mamata Bala Thakur, a scion of the Mahasangha continues to back Mamata Banerjee. But, Trinamool knows the danger is clear and present after the CAA was notified.
Though the party has been successful in engineering the switch over of two key persons - Mukutmani Adhikari and Biswajit Das - having considerable influence among the Matuas and fielding both from Ranaghat and Bongaon seats respectively in the elections, yet allegations of rampant corruption and deteriorating law and order situation coupled with several incarcerated leaders, who also doubled up as election managers in the districts, are keeping the Trinamool on tenterhooks.

The BJP knows well that even though the party managed to get 18 seats in the last general elections, voter percentage in favour of Trinamool Congress increased from 39.8 percent to 43.3 per cent in between 2014 and 2019. Mamata simply increased her party's share in the 2021 Assembly elections when Trinamool got a whopping 48.02 per cent votes. Last year's panchayat election result was also a clean sweep for the TMC.

To trounce Mamata Banerjee on her own turf and to increase its last time's tally in Bengal, the Modi-Shah combine might have to walk a couple of extra miles than only implementing CAA. Counter-polarisation centred around implementation of the CAA, dissidence over choice of candidates and absence of a strong state-level leader, keep the creases deep on BJP's forehead.

Read More

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2. In West Bengal, Discontent Hits BJP, Trinamool Congress Ranks Over Candidate Lists
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