Introduction
Nations resort to conflict to secure strategic interests and assert geopolitical influence. Conventional warfare, with its high costs and risks, often proves too prohibitive. In the context of India’s neighbourhood, both China and Pakistan favour grey zone warfare — a strategy that operates below the threshold of an open conflict. This approach allows them to advance national objectives through ambiguity and deniability while minimising the likelihood of a full-scale war. The perpetrator is known, moreover, all his actions carry a high degree of plausible deniability. Unlike as the term suggests, 'Grey zone campaigns' are not 'zoned' either by geography or time. The actions are designed to unfold over a period of time, spread over a vast geography.
Grey Zone Warfare and Revisionist Powers
Post Second World War, international rules were laid down by the victors, the US supported by the West. Both Russia and rising China wish to challenge this hegemony of the US. Traditional warfare is expensive, unpredictable, and risks international condemnation. Instead of using traditional kinetic weapons, nations resort to economic coercion, cyber warfare, information manipulation, and proxy conflicts against its competitors.
Countries that employ grey zone tactics are typically revisionist powers — nations that seek to alter the global balance of power in their favour, without engaging in open war.
China and Pakistan in India's neighbourhood have used grey zone tactics extensively against India since decades. While China's approach is calculated and focused on controlled expansion, Pakistan's strategy is centered on ideological warfare and state-sponsored instability.
China’s Grey Zone Warfare Strategy
The 'Grey Zone' concept tend to align with the ancient Chinese strategic culture. The Chinese believe that the height of wisdom is not fighting a decisive, costly battle brilliantly but to avoid the need for such a battle in the first place. The traditional wisdom of the nation endorses indirection and avoiding unnecessarily decisive fights, where possible. Achieving one's strategic goals Step-by-step using low-cost grey zone campaigns represents just such an approach.
China may be seen as a measured revisionist power (the nations that seek to alter the existing international order to better serve their interests). The Chinese support those existing global orders which favour its rise but seek to modify aspects that do not align with its national interests. China's strategy of Grey Zone revolves around the following methods:
Salami-Slicing Strategy
China gradually expands its territorial control in disputed areas by making small, incremental moves that do not provoke an immediate military response. The construction and militarisation of artificial islands in the South China Sea and territorial incursions along the India-China border are examples.
Economic Coercion
China uses trade dependencies, loans, and investments to exert influence over other nations, effectively limiting their strategic options. Mega projects like ‘The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)’ has created financial dependencies in many countries, allowing Beijing to gain economic and political leverage.
Cyber and Information Warfare
China engages in cyber espionage, disinformation campaigns, and digital influence operations to weaken its adversaries. China has been making continuous hacking attempts of Indian defense and infrastructure systems, along with spreading misinformation on social media to manipulate public perception.
Military Posturing and Paramilitary Tactics
Instead of deploying regular military forces, China uses militia groups, coast guards, and paramilitary units to assert dominance in disputed regions. The Chinese maritime militia harassing other nations' fishing and naval vessels in the South China Sea and graziers along the LAC with India is an example of such deniable acts which can be provocative otherwise.
Political Influence Operations
China exerts influence by funding political parties, media organisations, and academic institutions in target countries to shape favourable policies. China has been suspected to have made investments in Indian media to control narratives.
China’s Endgame
China's grey zone strategy aims to undermine U.S. dominance globally by expanding its control over strategic areas like the Indo-Pacific without engaging in open war. While within Asia, China is seeking to reduce India's influence by keeping it distracted by border tensions and pushing it in internal contradictions and conflicts.
Pakistan’s Grey Zone Warfare Strategy
Pakistan's strategy of grey zone warfare differs from China's measured revisionism. Pakistan is driven by ideology, proxy conflicts, and territorial ambitions (Kashmir) rather than controlled strategic expansion. Dr Michael Mazarr in his master piece 'Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict' calls the Pakistani approach as that of a reckless predator like a band of Wolves. These belligerent predators are determined to gain more and undertake massive risks. They are aware that losing the gamble of continuous rivalry with India may mean country’s ultimate extinction, but they are still ready to take immense risks.
Pakistan's military and intelligence agencies prioritise harming India over ensuring their own national stability, often leading to economic and political crises within Pakistan itself. This was evident during the Kargil conflict (1999), where Pakistan's military leadership engaged in a risky military operation without considering long-term consequences. Pakistan actively funds, trains, and shelters terrorist organisations that operate against India. Groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen have been used to conduct attacks in Kashmir and across India. Pakistan's strategy revolves around the following methods:
Spreading Radical Ideology
By promoting extremist narratives, Pakistan encourages separatism and internal strife within India. It has resorted to radicalisation of youth in Kashmir through social media propaganda and religious networks.
Hybrid Warfare and Disinformation
Pakistan combines cyber-attacks, fake news, and diplomatic manoeuvres to weaken India's global standing. Coordinated disinformation campaigns on social media to discredit India's actions in Kashmir and Punjab is a prime example.
Nuclear Brinkmanship as a Cover for Grey Zone Warfare
Pakistan relies on its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, allowing it to conduct low-intensity conflicts against India without fearing large-scale retaliation. Cross-border terrorism and ceasefire violations continue under the belief that India will avoid escalation due to nuclear risks.
Pakistan’s Endgame
Pakistan's grey zone strategy is designed to keep India engaged in internal security issues, preventing it from focusing on economic and military advancements. Pakistan has been successful so far to internationalise the Kashmir dispute through propaganda and diplomatic pressure. It has hence ensured instability in India’s border regions resulting in weakening the national unity.
The China-Pakistan Nexus Against India
Despite differences in their grey zone strategies, China and Pakistan coordinate their efforts to challenge India on multiple fronts. China supports Pakistan militarily and diplomatically, including nuclear and missile technology transfers. China's investments in Pakistan (CPEC) strengthen Pakistan's ability to engage in grey zone tactics against India. Cooperation and coordination between the two has presented a 'two front' dilemma to Indian security. India faces simultaneous border conflicts with China in the north and terror threats from Pakistan in the west. Together, both nations amplify anti-India narratives in global forums to weaken India’s position internationally.
India’s Vulnerabilities in the Grey Zone
India’s democratic structure, diverse society, and diplomatic approach make it an attractive target for grey zone warfare. Key weaknesses include:
Ethnic and Religious Diversity: India's multi-ethnic society is vulnerable to external manipulation and internal divisions.
Status Quoist Foreign Policy: India prefers stability and non-interference, which limits its ability to take proactive countermeasures.
Limited Power Projection: India’s reactive strategic posture allows adversaries to dictate the terms of engagement.
Over-Reliance on Diplomacy: India's peace-first approach is exploited by rivals to buy time and continue grey zone activities.
Cyber and Information Weaknesses: India is a target for misinformation campaigns and cyberattacks from both China and Pakistan.
Countering Grey Zone Warfare: To effectively counter grey zone threats, India must:
- Strengthen cyber defenses and intelligence networks.
- Adopt a proactive military and diplomatic approach.
- Disrupt China-Pakistan collaboration through regional alliances.
- Improve internal stability and counter-radicalization efforts.
Conclusion
Grey zone warfare will continue to shape India's security challenges in the coming years, requiring a multi-dimensional and adaptive strategy to defend against revisionist threats.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
