India and Israel have both been facing sponsored terrorism for decades, India by Pakistan and Israel by Iranian-backed groups. Both nations have displayed restraint for decades. For Israel, the October 07 attacks in 2023 had to be responded to, while for India, it was Pahalgam. Israel exploited the past almost two years of the conflict to isolate Iran by reducing Hamas to an insurgent force, degrading the capabilities of Hezbollah and Houthis as also bringing about a regime change in Syria. It could now engage Iran without much interference from local terrorist groups.
Another concern for Israel was the development of nuclear weapons by Iran, though US intelligence believed Israel was not doing so. Netanyahu had multiple aims when he launched Operation Rising Lion on 13th June this year. These included degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities as also damaging its military power to levels where it would hesitate to sponsor anti-Israel terrorist groups, fearing reprisal.
The fact that Iran and Israel do not share a common border implied that all actions would be non-kinetic, multi-domain including clandestine. Israeli Mossad had in the past launched assassinations within Iran as also penetrated its security networks.
The war between Iran and Israel lasted 12 days, with Iran responding to Israel's strikes by firing a variety of missiles and UAVs, under Operation True Promise 3. In the war, Israel did attack a few of Iran's nuclear facilities, targeted its military capabilities including air defence and missile sites and depots as also eliminated some members of its top military hierarchy and nuclear scientists, employing its airpower as also clandestine operations from within.
Despite degrading Iran’s air defence, Israel lacked the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own. It was forced to request US President Donald Trump to intervene and employ US military assets. Netanyahu knew for years that Israel would at some stage be compelled to attack Iran and aware of its nuclear locations, including their security measures, but failed to obtain the ideal hardware for their destruction.
Iran’s missile and UAV response came as a shocker to Israel. It had expected Iran to hit back but not in this manner. Its assessment of Iran’s capabilities were based on inputs provided by MOSSAD. However, it failed to block Iran’s counterattack. Iran, aware of Iran’s air defence employed decoys alongside its missiles thereby ensuring some success.
It proved that no matter how technologically superior Israel’s indigenous air defence systems (Iron Dome) is, it is vulnerable and can be bypassed. Further, Israel spent billions of dollars to counter cheap Iran’s missiles. Infrastructure losses of Israel were reasonably heavy, though the damage to Iran was far greater.
Trump was forced to intervene, employ US military power and then announce a ceasefire. Such was Trump’s control on Israel that a single X post from him forced Israel to recall its aircraft, post attacking a single limited-value target within Iran.
Compare this to Operation Sindoor. India has a singular aim, which was to hit Pakistan’s terrorist camps and subsequently send a clear warning of de-escalation. India was prepared for Pakistan’s counterstrikes; in case it ignored India’s de-escalation message.
As compared to Israel-Iran, both India and Pakistan share a common border and hence operations could have become intense involving employment of all military power. However, India kept escalation levels controlled by avoiding moving its strike formations to the borders. This messaging played a major role in early de-escalation.
What was different? India was prepared for multi-levels of escalation from Pakistan, each of which had been war-gamed to their final stages. Each escalation level implied employing an additional level of military power, including naval. The Red Team concept, introduced by the army for the first time, using Pakistan experts, paid rich dividends in their assessments of Pakistan’s intent.
What was similar to Israel was that India was aware that terrorism would not stop and at some stage India would be compelled to react to Pakistan’s misadventures. It had hence procured armaments, including enhancing its Brahmos capabilities, as also built some aspects of its military power for such an eventuality, while catering to challenge its main adversary, China.
New Delhi knew it could neither repeat the cross-border strikes of 2016 nor Balakote of 2019. The response had to be different, more powerful and visible to the world as also the Pakistani public. At the same time, the message had to be conveyed without collateral damage, including civilian casualties. This happened.
In the conduct, India initially only engaged terrorist camps. The accuracy of engagement left the world surprised. No structures, other than terrorist camps were destroyed as also there was no civilian casualties. Those killed were residents of terrorist camps, army posts along the LoC and strategic airbases.
Compare this to Israel leaving over 900 civilians dead in its strikes on Iran. Indian armed forces were prepared for Pakistan’s possible manner of retaliation and hence were able to block the same with very little damage. India’s counter-strike on Pakistan’s strategic assets brought them to their knees.
Operation Rising Lion of Israel lasted twelve days and ultimately it was the entry of the US which brought the war to an end. Israel neither could subdue Iran nor terminate the war on its terms. In Operation Sindoor, the conflict, as compared to Israel against a wannabe nuclear power Iran, was against an accepted nuclear power, with an almost equally powerful adversary. It lasted 88 hours and compelled the Pakistan army chief to order his DGMO to approach his Indian counterpart for a ceasefire.
India neither needed the assistance of another power nor Trump announcing a ceasefire, though he continues to boast, desperate to be awarded the Nobel Prize. Pakistan was backed by China, which provided it satellite and other technical backing, while India fought alone.
While Israel’s much-touted indigenous military products were partially successful, India’s domestic defence products, unknown to the world and unheralded thus far, were highly successful. These are now in great demand. Simultaneously, Chinese military hardware, employed extensively by Pakistan, failed.
A common factor is that both Pakistan and Iran, despite being routed and their strategic assets depleted, have claimed victory. The Pakistan army and the Iranian leadership is desperate to save face within the nation and maintain continuity of their control.
The other common factor is that no matter what damage is caused to Pakistan by India or Iran by Israel, their support to terrorism is unlikely to end. It will be curtailed for some time, but may never end. This cycle will continue unless an internal uprising forces a change.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
