New Delhi: As tensions between India and Pakistan continue following the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s response through Operation Sindoor, China has stepped in with a bold declaration: it will accelerate the construction of the Mohmand Hydroelectric Project, a major dam in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The announcement follows India’s decision to put the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, marking a new and uncertain chapter in regional water politics and trilateral relations involving two nuclear neighbours and an increasingly assertive Beijing.
Citing China’s state broadcaster CCTV, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday that concrete filling on the dam had started, marking “a critical construction milestone and a phase of accelerated development for this national flagship project of Pakistan”.
China’s decision to fast-track the Mohmand Dam project in Pakistan adds a new layer to South Asia’s complex water diplomacy. The timing of Beijing’s declaration suggests a coordinated show of support for Pakistan and a possible shift in how infrastructure is being used as a tool of strategic alignment in the region.
The IWT, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, has been a cornerstone of India-Pakistan water-sharing agreements. Under the treaty, India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan has rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). Following the Pahalgam attack, which India attributes to Pakistan-based militants, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised that “water and blood cannot flow together”, signalling a firm stance on national security and a suspension of the Treaty until Pakistan ceases support for terrorism.
This suspension allows India greater flexibility in managing the Indus River system, including fast-tracking hydroelectric projects on the western rivers and halting Pakistani inspections at ongoing projects like Kishanganga and Ratle. While the immediate impact on Pakistan’s water supply is limited due to India's current infrastructure constraints, the move has raised concerns about long-term water security in Pakistan, which relies heavily on these rivers for agriculture and hydropower.
Now, China’s decision can be seen as a geopolitical signal to India, highlighting Beijing’s influence in the region and its willingness to counterbalance India’s actions. The move could be interpreted as a response to India’s suspension of the IWT and an assertion of China’s role in regional water politics.
What is the Mohmand Hydroelectric Project?
The Mohmand Dam is an under-construction multi-purpose concrete-faced rock-filled dam located on the Swat River approximately 37 km north of Peshawar and five km upstream of Munda Headworks in Mohmand District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Once completed, the dam will generate 800 MW of hydroelectricity, would irrigate 16,100 acres of land and control floods downstream. It is expected to provide numerous estimated annual benefits including PKR4.98 billion in annual water storage benefits, PKR19.6 billion in power generation benefits by generating 2.4 billion units of electricity annually and PKR79 million in annual flood mitigation benefits.
Mohmand Dam is also expected to protect Nowshera and Charsadda districts from seasonal floods by storing peak flood water in its reservoir and releasing it in dry seasons. In December 2010, in the aftermath of the July 2010 floods in Pakistan, the Pakistan Supreme Court had constituted a flood inquiry commission to investigate the damage caused by the July floods that engulfed the country and caused unprecedented damage to life and property. In its report, the commission noted that if the Mohmand Dam had been constructed, there would have been minimal damage downstream in Charsadda, Peshawar and Nowshera districts and Munda Headworks.
What is the status of construction of the dam?
Construction of the Mohmand Dam commenced in May 2019, with the project being implemented by Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). The construction contract was awarded to a joint venture between China Gezhouba Group Company (CGGC) and Pakistan's Descon Engineering. Voith Hydro Shanghai Limited (VHS) was contracted to supply the turbine generator units and online monitoring systems.
The project’s estimated cost is approximately PKR309.558 billion, with funding sourced from various entities, including the Islamic Development Bank, which approved $180 million for the project. During peak construction, the project has created employment opportunities for around 6,000 individuals, contributing to the local economy.
Initially scheduled for completion in December 2025, the project has experienced delays, with the first unit now expected to be commissioned in December 2026 and full completion anticipated by April 2027.
What are the implications of China’s decision in terms of regional water politics and power dynamics?
According to Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading commentator on transboundary water issues, China is well-entrenched in various water projects in Pakistan.
“China and Pakistan are among the world’s biggest dam builders,” Sinha told ETV Bharat.
He explained that Pakistan is very dependent on its rivers and needs water through these projects.
As for China’s decision to expedite the Mohmand Dam project, he said that China and Pakistan are all-weather friends.
“During the recent tensions between India and Pakistan, Beijing voiced support for Islamabad,” Sinha said. “China made the announcement to fast-track the Mohmand project after India decided to keep the IWT in abeyance. It is typical posturing and strategic messaging.”
Harsh V Pant, Professor of International Relations with King’s India Institute at King’s College London and Vice-President (Studies and Foreign Policy) at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, said that this back and forth between India and China will continue.
“Both sides are using water as a leverage in diplomacy,” Pant said. “This will accelerate and affect geopolitical dimensions. Pakistan is merely a pawn for China.”
At the same time, he added that both China and Pakistan are giving importance to these dynamics vis-à-vis India.
Abhinav Pandya, founder, director and CEO of the Usanas Foundation think tank, is of the view that China’s decision is a very crucial development for Pakistan and also for the regional geopolitics of South Asia.
“After India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan’s concerns regarding its water security have increased multi-fold,” Pandya said. “It has always been a major cause of concern for Pakistan because India is an upper riparian state and increasingly Pakistan has been facing water shortages. So, perhaps, China, the blood brother of Pakistan, the all-weather friend of Pakistan, is trying to allay water-related insecurity of Pakistan by fast-tracking the Mohmand project.”
He said that this is basically a measure to secure Pakistan against the threats of water insecurity.
“This also reflects China’s stronger alignment with Pakistan’s strategic interests,” Pandya said. “China also sees Pakistan as a major counterweight to India and aligns with the larger strategic interest of Beijing. So, it will continue to strengthen Pakistan.”
