New Delhi: As South Sudan teeters on the edge of another civil war, India has reasons to be concerned beyond humanitarian sympathy. With rising global energy insecurity, growing Indian investments in Africa, and New Delhi's strategic engagement with the continent, renewed conflict in South Sudan could send ripple effects through India's economic, diplomatic, and security calculations.
The latest warning from Nicholas Haysom, head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), underscores the urgency of the situation, as escalating violence and deepening political fractures threaten to plunge the world's youngest nation back into chaos. For India, the stakes range from oil market volatility to peacekeeping responsibilities and strategic positioning in Africa.
"A conflict would erase all the hard-won gains made since the 2018 peace deal was signed," Hayson said during a media briefing at the UN headquarters in New York earlier this week. "It would devastate not only South Sudan but the entire region, which simply cannot afford another war."
Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan, often referred to as the world's youngest nation, has struggled with persistent conflict and instability.
A brutal civil war broke out in 2013 between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those backing his former deputy, Riek Machar. The war, marred by ethnic violence and humanitarian crises, lasted until a tenuous peace deal was brokered in 2018. However, while the Revitalised Peace Agreement brought a measure of stability, its sluggish implementation and lingering political rivalries have kept tensions on a knife's edge.
Tensions reignited on March 4 when the White Army, a youth militia, launched a large-scale assault on South Sudanese military barracks in Nasir, Upper Nile province. The government responded with retaliatory airstrikes, reportedly using barrel bombs with highly flammable accelerants, hitting civilian areas and causing severe casualties.
"These indiscriminate attacks on civilians are resulting in significant casualties and horrific injuries, particularly severe burns, including among women and children," Haysom said. At least 63,000 people have been displaced, and reports suggest both government forces and rebel groups are mobilising for further clashes. There are also alarming allegations of child recruitment into armed militias.
The situation has been further complicated by the government’s request for foreign troop deployment, a move that has rekindled painful memories of past conflicts.
Political tensions continue to escalate, exacerbating ethnic divisions. Senior officials linked to the opposition Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) have been dismissed, detained, or forced into hiding. Meanwhile, a surge in misinformation, disinformation, and hate speech is stoking fear and resentment, further undermining reconciliation efforts.
"With the current trajectory, we have no choice but to conclude that South Sudan is dangerously close to relapsing into full-scale civil war," Haysom warned.
Despite ongoing diplomatic interventions by UNMISS, the African Union (AU), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), progress remains stalled. A high-level IGAD delegation visit to South Sudan’s capital Juba – intended to mediate between the rival factions – was abruptly postponed by the South Sudanese government without explanation, casting doubt over the peace process.
"This setback is deeply concerning, especially at a time when diplomatic engagement is more crucial than ever," Haysom said.
Haysom has urged South Sudan's leadership to immediately recommit to the 2018 peace agreement, uphold the ceasefire, release detained officials, and resolve disputes through dialogue rather than violence. He also called on President Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar to meet and publicly reaffirm their commitment to peace. "The time to act is now – because the alternative is simply too catastrophic to contemplate," the UN official said.
With escalating violence, deepening political tensions, and an ongoing humanitarian crisis, the world’s youngest nation is once again at a critical juncture. While this may seem like a distant conflict, India has compelling reasons to be deeply concerned. From its significant contributions to UN peacekeeping missions to its economic interests in Africa, the instability in South Sudan poses strategic, economic, and humanitarian challenges for New Delhi.
India has been a major contributor to UN peacekeeping forces, including in South Sudan. As of 2024, India ranks among the top troop-contributing nations to UNMISS, with Indian soldiers playing a crucial role in maintaining stability in conflict-prone regions.
India has steadily expanded its energy and economic footprint in Africa, and South Sudan is no exception. ONGC Videsh has made an investment of about $2 billion (spread over Sudan and South Sudan) in the hydrocarbon sector since 2003, according to the External Affairs Ministry. Over 90 per cent of South Sudanʼs budget funding comes from its oil revenues.
Production of crude oil was, however, disrupted from December 2013 due to the outbreak of the civil war in the country further deteriorated the economy. Since September 2018, however, oil production has been revived at a minimal level. It was expected to reach the pre-2013 level of 320,000 bpd, but the production on the ground has remained between 130,000 bpd to 170,000 bpd until 2023. However, after damage to one of the two oil pipelines in Sudan in February 2024, 65 per cent of its oil production stopped.
A few companies, where the majority share is owned by Indians, have presence in South Sudan in different fields such as the hotel industry, construction, borehole drilling, printing, retail trading, supply to UN agencies and NGOs and oil industry-related services. Some Indians also run supermarkets and restaurants in Juba.
According to figures made available by the External Affairs Ministry, the main items of Indian imports from South Sudan are oil and timber, whereas India’s exports to South Sudan mainly comprise consumer and household goods, food items, pharmaceuticals, motorcycles and three-wheelers. As the trade is mainly through third countries (Uganda, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates), precise data are not available.
According to Department of Commerce figures, the total trade between India and South Sudan stood at $41.84 million in the financial year 2023-24. Ruchita Beri, Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation think tank and an expert on Africa, explained that India is the second largest troop-contributing country to UNMISS.
"If the tensions escalate, our troops will be under fire," Beri told ETV Bharat. "That is why India will be concerned about the situation in South Sudan."
She explained that the White Army is allied to Vice President Machar. Though a government was formed with Kiir as the President under the Revitalised Peace Agreement, divisions have again arisen between the President and the Vice President.
What has further escalated matters is that Uganda has sent its forces to South Sudan to protect the government of President Kiir. This, Beri explained, is in violation of a UN arms embargo in the region. According to a report by Reuters news agency, in a letter addressed to the UN, AU and the IGAD, Machar said Uganda's military intervention in South Sudan had violated the 2018 peace deal.
Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, said that South Sudan is on the precipice of yet another civil war, one which neither the world's youngest country nor the East African region can afford.
"Years of painstaking negotiations which led to a peace agreement between President Kiir and his rival Vice President Machar in August 2018 to stop the civil war now threatens to unravel and fall apart," Mishra told ETV Bharat. "South Sudan's aspiration to form a government of national unity now stands unfulfilled due to nationalistic personalities of Kiir and Machar, who chose to put up their self-serving interests and further promote divisions based on ethnicities before the interests of common people. The alarming use of barrel bombs in the recent attacks by rebels points to a dangerous new trend."
As for India's interests in South Sudan, Beri said that ONGC Videsh’s investments in that country are now in dire straits. "South Sudan is a landlocked country," she explained. "So, oil has to be transported via pipelines that lead to ports in Sudan."
India brought on board the AU to the G20 high table during the intergovernmental body's summit held in New Delhi in 2023. Given that New Delhi is projecting itself as the voice of the Global South, the question arises as to how India will deal with the situation in South Sudan.
"India doesn't want to get involved," Beri said. "India wants the African countries to resolve such issues between themselves. However, India doesn’t want the tensions to escalate." Beri also stated that New Delhi will be more concerned as of now about the security of the small Indian diaspora in South Sudan.
"The (Narendra) Modi government has always taken care of the Indian diaspora in troubled spots across the world, for example, Ukraine," she said.
To sum up, South Sudan’s looming civil war is more than a distant conflict – it has direct and indirect implications for India’s peacekeeping missions, economic interests, diaspora safety, and broader geopolitical strategy in Africa. As the crisis unfolds, India must remain vigilant, proactive, and engaged in diplomatic efforts.
