Gold Soars Past $4,000: Is This The Peak Or Just The Beginning?

By Saurabh Shukla

New Delhi: As gold prices soar past the historic $4,000 per ounce mark in international markets and cross 1.21 Lakh per 10 gm (MCX Price 10 Oct 2025) in the Indian market, questions are swirling around what lies ahead for precious metals. Is this the peak or just another milestone in a longer-term uptrend? What should investors watch for: profit taking, policy-driven volatility or a shift in global asset allocation?

To decode the dynamics behind this rally and the road ahead, ETV Bharat spoke to the Director at Ya Wealth Global, Anuj Gupta, a seasoned voice in commodities and wealth management. In an exclusive conversation, he shares insights on market catalysts, potential corrections, rising demand for Gold ETFs and how investors can navigate the gold rush safely.

ETV Bharat (ETB): Gold prices have crossed $4,000 in the international market. At this level, is investing in gold risky now? Will there be a sell-off, or will prices continue to rise further?

Anuj Gupta: In the near term, we may see some profit booking in gold prices since they’ve risen significantly. However, current global conditions do not suggest a major decline in gold or silver. One of the key drivers of market volatility right now is Donald Trump, whose statements and policy moves are acting as market catalysts.

Besides this, the possibility of profit booking stems from recent tariffs on China, which may lead investors to liquidate positions, triggering some selling pressure. Also easing tensions in Gaza are signals of a slight softness in gold prices. Another factor is the strengthening US dollar relative to other major currencies. It typically puts downward pressure on gold in the short term.

ETB: With both gold and silver outperforming equities and oil, are we witnessing a structural shift in investor preference toward hard assets?

Anuj Gupta: Even after the recent surge, gold and silver prices are likely to remain elevated into the coming year, possibly until next Diwali. Gold could also rise further to $4200/ounce or more, and silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory as well.

Diwali Gold Price (ETV Bharat Graphics)

After this Diwali festive season, we may see a brief period of softness, but demand is expected to rebound quickly during the wedding season, which traditionally boosts physical gold purchases. This suggests a structural shift in investor sentiment, with increasing preference for hard assets like gold and silver, as they provide safety amid persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

ETB: Could the delay in fiscal clarity from the US government become the new catalyst for sustained precious metal inflows?

Anuj Gupta: Absolutely. Any major action by the US President, such as a government shutdown or imposition of tariffs, has a global impact. These actions introduce uncertainty into global markets, which creates demand for safe-haven assets. In such an environment, investors often avoid putting money into currency or money markets, instead turning to more stable, secure assets, most notably gold. As long as this uncertainty continues, gold prices are likely to stay elevated.

ETB: In the Indian context, how could tariffs and global dynamics influence gold demand and pricing?

Anuj Gupta: Tariffs and global economic disruptions can significantly affect India's economic activity. A reduction in demand from the US will impact India's export-driven sectors, leading to slowdown concerns domestically.

This, in turn, would put pressure on the Indian rupee, especially as the US dollar strengthens. Since gold is largely imported, a weaker rupee means higher local prices for gold. This dynamic is not limited to India; similar patterns could play out in other emerging markets as well.

ETB: How long might the softness in gold prices last, and what trends are emerging in gold investment?

Anuj Gupta: We may see mild price corrections after Diwali, lasting around 15 to 20 days. However, demand is expected to rise again with the onset of the wedding season, which supports gold prices once more.

A significant trend is the increasing investor preference for gold ETFs over physical gold. Currently, Gold ETFs in India have seen AUMs (Assets Under Management) rise to 83,000 Cr Rupees. It indicates strong institutional and retail interest. This shift is also being seen in other precious metals.

ETB: Amid rising prices, what are the safe ways to invest in gold, and also what should investors be cautious about?

Anuj Gupta: With the rally in gold prices, there has been a surge in investment advice and, unfortunately, in fraudulent schemes as well. Being informed and cautious is key to making safe and profitable gold investments.

Experts suggest to invest in gold (ETV Bharat Graphics)

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