AI Could Lead To Significant Increases In Trade And GDP By 2040: WTO Report

The 2025 edition of the World Trade Report states that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34-37 per cent across different scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low, middle and high-income economies.

It states that the Global GDP could see a 12-13 per cent increase across different scenarios. Trade, in turn, can be a powerful enabler of inclusive AI-supported growth by helping economies access AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs. The WTO report estimates that global trade in these goods totalled USD 2.3 trillion in 2023.

"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says in her foreword to the report.

"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," Okonjo-Iweala said.

In a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50 per cent and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15% and 14% respectively .

The report also points to the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45 per cent in some low-income economies.

Investing in education and training and deploying appropriate labour market policies can help avoid a widening of inequality within economies, the report adds.

The report emphasizes the role of the WTO in helping to deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits. The organization provides a forum for WTO members to discuss AI-related trade measures, the report notes, highlighting that 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place in the context of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.

Additional commitments from members, such as through broader participation in the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more inclusive and affordable, the report adds.

The report was launched at the first day of the Public Forum. DG Okonjo-Iweala said, "The new report comes amid the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years. Yet amid the risks to trade, growth and development prospects, there are bright spots – and one of them is the potential of artificial intelligence."

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