Hyderabad: In response to the deadly Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir which left at least 26 people dead, India on Wednesday announced a slew of diplomatic measures against Pakistan which includes putting the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance and sealing the Attari-Wagah border in Punjab.
What is the Indus Water Treaty and how would India's announcement to put it in abeyance impact Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam attack? ETV Bharat brings you an explainer on the matter.
What Is The 1960 Indus Water Treaty?
- The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan signed on September 19, 1960 to determine the distribution of waters of the Indus river and its tributaries. The origins of the IWT can be traced back to the Partition of British India in August 1947.
- The treaty was signed by the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan after nine years of negotiations. It was brokered by the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development).
- Initially, the issue of water sharing was sorted out by the Inter-Dominion accord of May 4, 1948 that laid out that India would release enough water to Pakistan in return for annual payments from the latter.
- As per the agreement, India has full rights over Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers while Pakistan has full rights over Jhelum, Chenab and Indus.
Main Highlights Of The Treaty
- Under the treaty, India received rights over 20% of the system’s water—roughly 33 million acre-feet (MAF) or 41 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually—while Pakistan received 80%, about 135 MAF or 99 bcm.
- According to the treaty, all the water of eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas and Ravi )shall be available for unrestricted use in India.
- India should let unrestricted flow of water from western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus to Pakistan.
- It doesn’t mean that India can’t use western river’s water.
- The treaty says that India can use the water in western rivers in “non-consumptive” needs. Here non-consumptive means we can use it for irrigation, storage and even for electricity production. (But India has not fully utilized this provision so far).
- The treaty allocates 80% of water from the six-river Indus water system to Pakistan.
- A Permanent Indus Commission was set up as a bilateral commission to implement and manage the Treaty.
- India has been giving about 5,900 tmcft of water every year to Pakistan with hardly any qualms.
Importance of Indus River System To Pakistan And Possible Impact
- India has earlier threatened to "revisit" the IWT after previous attacks, this is the first time the treaty has been formally suspended. The timing is deliberate: the move hits Pakistan where it hurts most—agriculture, food, water, and energy security.
- Pakistan's economy depends extensively on the waters from these three rivers. From textile to sugar and agriculture to industry, the IWT plays a major role in keeping the country’s economic wheel moving.
- The Indus river network—comprising the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—forms the backbone of Pakistan’s agricultural sector. It sustains a population of tens of millions, fulfilling 23 per cent of the country's agricultural water needs and directly supporting nearly 68 per cent of rural livelihoods.
- Pakistan is already one of the most water -stressed countries in the World.
- 80% of Pakistan cultivated land, about 16 million hectares, relies on water from the Indus System.
- 93% of this water is used for irrigation, powering the country's agricultural backbone.
- IWT supports over 237 Million people, with PAK accounting for 61% of Indus Basin Population.
- Major Urban centres- Karachi, Lahore and Multan draw their water directly from these rivers.
- It will compound the issue is Pakistan's limited water storage capacity. Major dams such as Mangla and Tarbela have a combined live storage of just 14.4 million acre-feet (MAF)—a mere 10 percent of the country’s annual entitlement under the treaty. In times of reduced water flow or seasonal variability, this shortfall in storage leaves Pakistan acutely vulnerable.
- The sytem contributes nearly 25% of Pakistan's GDP and supports several crops.
- If India cuts off or significantly reduces flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the impact will be immediate and severe:
- Food production could collapse, threatening food security for millions.
- Urban water supplies would dry up, causing unrest in cities.
- Power generation would stall, crippling Industries and homes.
- Loan defaults, unemployment, and migration could spike in rural regions.
Can The Suspension Impact Pakistan Immediately?
- The impact will not be felt immediately as India's decision to hold the treaty in abeyance doesn't mean an immediate halt to water flowing to Pakistan. This is so because India presently doesn't have the infrastructure to stop the flow of water from the Indus rivers into Pakistan, or divert it for its own use. At most, India can cut water flows by 5-10%.
- The treaty restricts India from building reservoir dams on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India could, however, develop hydroelectric "run-of-the-river" projects. This means that the projects cannot alter the flow of water or obstruct it.
- Suspending the treaty means India may not adhere to these restrictions, and begin constructing reservoir dams to plug water flow.
- Building large reservoirs on these rivers will take years, if not a decade. It would require extensive surveys and funding for such a thing to fructify considering the ecological impact.
- India's move is more a pressure tactic on Pakistan to rein in terror groups and stop infiltration.
Previous Disputes On 1960 Indus Water Treaty
Since the ratification of the treaty in 1960, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars, despite engaging in several military conflicts. It survived several flashpoints in the perpetual conflict between the two nations, including the wars of 1965 and 1971, as well as the Kargil conflict of 1999. Most disagreements and disputes have been settled via legal procedures provided for within the framework of the treaty.
In 2019 too, after the Pulwama terror attack against paramilitary personnel, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly told the Cabinet Committee on Security that “blood and water can’t flow together." But at the time, India chose not to implement it.
- The Indus Water treaty has again been at the centre of rising tensions over the last two years.
- India issued a notice to Pak in January 2023 seeking modifications of IWT.
- Another notice was sent in September 2023 Seeking " review and modification of IWT.
- India's demands came as Pakistan objected to the design of two Hydroelectric projects in J&K.
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