Tension In Middle East: Experts Warn Of Soaring Airfares Amid Flight Delays And Diversions

By Surabhi Gupta

New Delhi: Air travel was disrupted globally on Friday after Iran fired missiles into Israel, provoking closure of airspace over multiple countries including Iran, Israel, Jordan and Iraq.

The unprecedented move forced several airlines including Air India to reroute or cancel dozens of international flights, affecting thousands of passengers globally with progressive effects felt across Europe and Asia. In the wake of tensions following Israel targeting Iran's nuclear programme, which resulted in the closure of its airspace, 16 Air India flights returned or were diverted on the day.

Middle Eastern and European flights affected

Middle Eastern carriers, such as Qatar Airways and Emirates Airlines, also experienced significant diversions while Istanbul Airport reported disruptions of at least 19 flights. The UK also experienced influential disruptions with British Airways rerouting London to Dubai flight to Larnaca, Cyprus. El Al redirected a Rhodes-Tel Aviv flight, and Royal Jordanian Airlines rerouted a Paris-Amman flight.

Flight tracking platforms indicated that Lufthansa, Swiss International Airlines, and other major European carriers turned back or rerouted flights that were set to traverse Iranian airspace. Three Lufthansa flights enroute to India and Dubai were forced to turn back, adding up to eight hours to journey times.

Expert cautions on airspace risk and protocols

Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS), Sharda Prasad, warned of long-term risks, stressing that airspace closures are the standard first response during military escalations.

“They need not work in the conflict zone. They may start doing work outside the conflict zone. Then they may resort to airport seizure or aircraft hijacks, such things can be done with minimum manpower and minimum weapons. This is the reason security measures need to be tightened,” he told ETV Bharat.

Prasad further explained that once a country closes its airspace, “commercial flights and operations are suspended. So they cannot go through that. Because whenever we are crossing any country, we are reporting to the towers below... they even keep a distance of 100–200 kilometers away from that area.”

Detours mean delays and higher costs

Captain NK Beri, a former Air India pilot with over 20,000 hours of experience, highlighted that flights are now taking longer routes to avoid Iranian airspace.

“For a few periods of time, flights will travel from Africa side while ignoring Iran airspace. The impact of fuel prices will unfortunately be passed on to customers. We expect at least a 10–20 per cent rise in airfares. Also, a passenger who had been reaching his/her destination in 4–5 hours will now do so in eight hours, so that is a loss,” he said.

The extended flight paths are not only burning more fuel but also increasing pressure on aircraft availability and crew rotations, potentially compounding delays and cancellations in the weeks ahead.

Dr KA Paul, founder of Praja Shanti Party and the US-based Global Peace Initiative (GPI), said, “It is heartbreaking to see what is again unfolding between Israel and Iran. I’ve had the privilege of being a state guest in both nations, landing our own VIP 747-SP aircraft in Iran with humanitarian aid during the Bam earthquake, and maintaining long-standing relations with several Israeli Prime Ministers. Today, Prime Minister Netanyahu is being criticized even within his own country, while one million innocent Palestinians in Gaza face starvation".

He said the recent bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites is a dangerous escalation. "All 56 ongoing wars across the globe must be brought to a halt. If not, even non-combatant countries like India will continue to bear the brunt through increased fuel costs, insurance premiums, and disrupted connectivity, without any direct involvement. Let us all pray for peace in the Middle East,” Dr Paul added.

Tourism industry braces for fallout

Dr Subhash Goyal, Chairman of the Tourism Committee at the Indian Chamber of Commerce, raised concerns over the broader impact on travel and tourism. "Already, flight durations have increased by 1/2 hour or 1 hour. What will happen now is that fuel consumption will increase a lot and naturally airlines will look at their pockets,” Goyal told ETV Bharat.

He explained that airlines are now rerouting flights that once crossed Iran and Pakistan through the UAE and other alternate corridors, adding to operational expenses. “Fares will increase because airlines will have to take a detour. So, fuel consumption will be more... they are doing it by keeping a little margin on it. If it is spent now, then the input cost will increase. So the margin should continue and ultimately the cost of the ticket will increase,” he said.

Goyal also noted a potential decline in international tourism due to safety concerns, adding, “whenever there is a conflict, people reduce their travel.” He mentioned that enhanced insurance products, including trip cancellation policies, may cushion passengers in some cases.

Impact on aviation sector deepens

Bhupinder Chowdhri, a pilot training material supplier, warned that airspace closures and regional instability could lead to prolonged disruptions in the aviation supply chain.

“Any conflict that creates a war-like situation anywhere around India or the Middle East will have a serious impact on entire air operations in the region, leading to reduced travel and increased costs to the airlines. All in all, an inflationary move that will disrupt movement of passengers and cargo worldwide,” he said.

The situation has created a ripple effect, with other major carriers such as Finnair, KLM, Wizz Air, Delta, and British Airways also suspending or altering their services to the Middle East. Since October 2023, several of these airlines had already stopped operations to Israel and Lebanon due to earlier escalations in the region.

Indian carriers like IndiGo and Spicejet are similarly avoiding Iranian airspace, with contingency plans in place for longer detours over Central Asia or Africa, depending on the situation's evolution.

Fuel prices and holiday travel outlook

Industry analysts warn that fuel costs, already accounting for nearly 40 per cent of airline operating expenses, could surge if crude oil prices rise in response to the geopolitical tension. With the holiday season around the corner, airlines may be forced to raise ticket prices substantially.

“Though it’s too early to gauge the full impact on airfares,” one industry executive said, “the combination of longer routes, increased fuel consumption, and geopolitical uncertainty will likely translate into a costlier and more unpredictable travel experience.”

Air India issues travel advisory; 17 flights diverted or returned

Air India announced in a public statement Friday that as a result of airspace closures and the rapidly changing regional security situation, 17 pairs of its long-haul international flights have been affected.

Air India flights, that are either being diverted or returning to their origin:

AI130 (London Heathrow–Mumbai) diverted to Vienna

AI102 (New York–Delhi) diverted to Sharjah

AI116 (New York–Mumbai) diverted to Jeddah

AI2018 (London Heathrow–Delhi) diverted to Mumbai

AI129 (Mumbai–London Heathrow) returned to Mumbai

AI119 (Mumbai–New York) returned to Mumbai

AI103 (Delhi–Washington) returned to Delhi

AI106 (Newark–Delhi) diverted to Vienna

AI188 (Vancouver–Delhi) diverting to Jeddah

AI101 (Delhi–New York) diverting to Frankfurt/Milan

AI126 (Chicago–Delhi) diverting to Jeddah

AI132 (London Heathrow–Bengaluru) diverted to Sharjah

AI2016 (London Heathrow–Delhi) diverted to Vienna

AI104 (Washington–Delhi) diverted to Vienna

AI190 (Toronto–Delhi) diverted to Frankfurt

AI189 (Delhi–Toronto) returned to Delhi

Disruptions developed after Flightradar24 data early Friday morning indicated aircraft adopted en masse rerouting across the Middle East. Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv was temporarily closed, Iran closed its airspace completely, and Iraq suspended all airport activity as well.

Global aviation on high alert

While Jordan and Iraq opened their airspace later Tuesday local time, Iran was still restricting access as fears of potential Israeli retaliation continued. Flights are being conducted with extreme caution, following real-time intelligence updates and route recommendations from international aviation regulators.

While the global aviation industry is adjusting to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, that erupted again in October 2023, airlines and consumers are now increasing confronting new uncertainties that involve not just diplomatic issues but also economic and operational realities.

Dr Goyal concluded, “In travel and tourism industry, we always pray for peace in the world because the two industries are always affected by war."

PHDCCI President Reaction

Hemant Jain, President, PHDCCI, told ETV Bharat, "We expect a negligible impact of the Israel-Iran development on the prices of petrol-diesel in the short run, since petroleum producers keep approximately 2 months inventory. Further, since the majority of refineries have long-term supply contracts with pricing based on an average price of crude oil, the impact will be low in the short term."

"In the medium to long term, if these geopolitical tensions escalate further, then we may see a jump in domestic prices, as India is a significant importer of petroleum and petroleum products. Airline Economics: Increased insurance premiums and security measures are threatening profit margins for Indian carriers like Air India, IndiGo, and Vistara," Jain added.

He added, "The Indian aviation sector is a pivotal enabler of economic growth, employment, and connectivity. In recent months, global geopolitical uncertainties and elevated war-risk ratings for certain air routes have driven up aviation insurance premiums, adding to costs for the airline operators."

Cargo & Trade Disruptions: "Delays and cost surges in air cargo logistics for Indian exporters, especially pharma and perishables The global trade landscape has been significantly affected by a series of disruptions, ranging from geopolitical tensions to climate-induced events. These challenges have implications on supply chains and therefore, on industries that are inherently dependent on it," Jain added.

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