Operation Sindoor May Be On pause, But Indus Waters Treaty Will Stay In Abeyance

New Delhi: In the immediate aftermath of the deadly April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, which left 26 civilians dead, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, a watershed move in a historically restrained bilateral framework.

While Operation Sindoor, India’s military response capability, remains in a calibrated pause, New Delhi’s decision to keep the IWT in abeyance signals a shift toward sustained strategic pressure without overt escalation.

"After the CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security) decision, the Indus Waters Treaty has been put in abeyance," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said during a media briefing here on Tuesday. "The Indus Waters Treaty was concluded in the spirit of goodwill and friendship as specified in the preamble of the Treaty. However, Pakistan has held these principles in abeyance by its promotion of cross-border terrorism for several decades now."

Jaiswal said that, according to the CCS decision taken on April 23, a day after the Pahalgam attack, India will keep the Treaty in abeyance "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism".

At the same time, he added: "Please also note that climate change and demographic shifts and technological changes have created new realities on the ground as well."

This deliberate decoupling of water diplomacy from kinetic retaliation reflects India’s evolving toolkit for coercive diplomacy, where punitive non-military levers are deployed to deter cross-border terrorism without crossing the threshold of full-scale conflict.

The IWT, signed in 1960, under the auspices of the World Bank, is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan. It allocates the three eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej - to India and the three western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab - to Pakistan while allowing India limited use of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes. This treaty has been a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations, surviving multiple conflicts and serving as a symbol of cooperation amidst hostility.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated the government's position by stating on Monday in a nationally televised address that "terror and talks cannot go together" and "water and blood cannot flow together", emphasising the incompatibility of diplomacy and terrorism.

By suspending the IWT, India has signaled a readiness to use water resources as leverage in its broader strategy against cross-border terrorism. This move allows India greater autonomy over the western rivers, potentially impacting Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, which heavily depend on these waters.

The suspension of the Treaty grants India the ability to undertake infrastructural projects and maintenance activities, such as reservoir flushing, without prior notification to Pakistan, as previously required under the treaty. This operational flexibility could accelerate India's hydroelectric initiatives and flood control measures.

Pakistan has vehemently opposed India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty, labeling it as “water terrorism” and a violation of international norms. Pakistani officials said that any attempt to disrupt water flow could be considered an “act of war”, with potential for severe retaliation.

The suspension of the IWT adds a new dimension to the already strained India-Pakistan relations. The potential for water scarcity in Pakistan could exacerbate existing economic challenges and fuel regional instability.

"The idea is to renegotiate the Treaty with Pakistan," Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading commentator on transboundary water issues, told ETV Bharat. "It means that they have to mend their ways."

Sinha said that India will continue to keep the Treaty in abeyance till Pakistan starts acting against terrorism. "They have not behaved responsibly as a party to the Treaty,” he said. “There is enough evidence of Pakistan abetting terrorism. India will continue to do things as provided to it under the Treaty.”

Sinha further stated that India will not share hydrological data with Pakistan, not provide information about hydropower projects and not follow the dispute regulatory mechanism.

"When the Treaty was signed in 1960, the environment was different,” he explained. “Now, 65 years later, the context has changed. India is trying to tell Pakistan that they have to renegotiate the Treaty based on new realities like climate change, rainfall patterns and demand for water.”

Harsh V Pant, Professor of International Relations with King’s India Institute at King’s College London and Vice-President (Studies and Foreign Policy) at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, concurred with Sinha.

"There are two sets of argument here,” Pant said. “One is that blood and water cannot flow together. The other is that India is trying to say that when the Treaty was signed, the conditions were different. India is saying that ground realities have changed. You cannot sanctify the Treaty in perpetuity.”

To sum up, India’s suspension of the IWT in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack represents a significant policy shift, intertwining water resource management with national security strategy.