New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted that the forthcoming southwest monsoon (June-September) will produce above-normal rainfall across the country. The IMD's long-range forecast indicates seasonal rainfall at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. The LPA (based on 1971-2020) is at 87 cm.
The IMD also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. "India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm," India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.
El Nino conditions, associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are unlikely to develop this time, he said.
Key Highlights of the Forecast
Monsoon Rainfall: The seasonal rainfall is expected to be at an "above normal" level, which is above 104% of LPA, and has a probability of 59%.
Regional Variation: Overall, most of India is expected to receive "above normal" rainfall (assuming chance), but some regions may see "below normal" as well, such as Northwest India, Northeast India, and South Peninsular India, which includes Tamil Nadu and parts of Ladakh.
ENSO and IOD Conditions: Neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions currently over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The ocean temperatures are neutral but the atmospheric circulation resembles La Niña, which typically is associated with a stronger monsoon.
Neutral IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions. A positive IOD is generally considered to be more conducive for the Indian monsoon, though neutral is not considered to be harmful.
Forecast Methodology and Strategy
IMD went on issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) in two stages since 2003. The first stage, known as the initial forecast, published in April, gives a national scenario, while an updated forecast will become available in the last week of May. From 2021, the IMD also followed a new integration strategy of both statistical and dynamic models, which includes the use of the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) that aggregates all model forecasts from multiple global models for improved accuracy.
This is the 5-category probability forecast for this monsoon:
- Deficient < 90% 2% 16%
- Below Normal 90-95% 9% 17%
- Normal 96-104% 30% 33%
- Above Normal 105-110% 33% 16%
- Excess > 110% 26% 17%
What This Means for India
The above-normal monsoon tends to positively correlate with crop yield, especially for rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds. It also helps in filling up reservoirs and groundwater levels used for urban and rural water supply.
However, since below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of the northeast and along the southern peninsula, there may be areas where contingency planning may be required for dry spells. Regional disparity in rainfall has to be closely monitored.
What's Next
IMD will issue a more detailed second-stage forecast at the end of May 2025. This would give a finer spatial forecast for the four meteorological zones, Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula, and Northeast India, as well as cover the core monsoon along with finer details of the expectation set across different parts of the country.
Expert View
Manu Singh, an environmentalist, told ETV Bharat, "The Long Period Average (LPA) of rainfall is 87 cm, with a 5% model error. There’s a 59% chance of rainfall exceeding 104% of LPA (above normal) and a 26% chance of excess rainfall (above 110% of LPA). This forecast is based on various climate indicators, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions."
"While current sea surface temperatures are neutral, La Niña-like conditions suggest a stronger monsoon. A low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere also supports this, as it is linked to enhanced monsoon activity. The forecast uses advanced climate models, improving seasonal predictions since 2021," added Singh.
"This surplus rainfall could benefit India’s agriculture, especially rain-fed crops like rice and pulses, while also improving water storage in reservoirs. It may help stabilize food inflation, energy demand, and agricultural exports. However, certain regions, like parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsular region, may experience below-normal rainfall, requiring careful planning for affected farming areas," he added.
SN Mishra, a climate expert and professor at TERI, said, "Since normal rainfall ranges from 94% to 104% of LPA, this forecast just crosses into the "above normal" category.
"All major climate indicators—ENSO, IOD, and Eurasian snow cover—are in neutral or favorable conditions, meaning there are no strong negative factors expected to affect the monsoon. However, total rainfall isn’t the full picture. What matters more is how the rain is spread across regions and time. This affects agriculture, water availability, and disaster readiness," said Mishra.
He added, "The forecast predicts good rainfall in the core monsoon zone, which helps farming and water storage. Lower rainfall in Tamil Nadu and parts of the Northeast isn't a major concern—Tamil Nadu relies more on the northeast monsoon, and less rain in the Northeast may reduce flooding. Overall, the monsoon outlook is positive, but its true impact will depend on when and how the rain falls. The more detailed second-stage forecast in May will be crucial for planning in agriculture and water management."
