Himalayan Shield Weakening? Monsoon Winds Crossing Into Tibet Worrying Signs For India, Say Experts
Himalayas have been India's shield, blocking monsoon winds and sustaining rivers and glaciers. Scientists said monsoon winds now crossing into Tibet is a worrying sign.
Published : September 9, 2025 at 1:45 PM IST
By Dheeraj Singh Sajwan
Dehradun: Amid the havoc caused by heavy rains across states in the Himalayan belt, scientists have claimed that this year the monsoon winds may have crossed the Himalayas into Tibet. As per the claims made by senior scientists at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology here in Uttarakhand, such a scenario has likely happened for the first time.
The Himalayas, considered a natural barrier that monsoon winds cannot cross, eventually feed the rivers and glaciers by accumulating snow. If the winds are indeed moving into Tibet, experts said, it is a serious concern for the future. ETV Bharat spoke to senior scientists and weather experts to understand the issue in detail and its possible dangers.
Record Rainfall In Central And Western Himalayas
According to the Meteorological Department, this year, states in the Central Himalayas (Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh) and the Western Himalayas (Jammu & Kashmir and some mountain regions of Pakistan) received far more rainfall than usual.
Data from the Dehradun Meteorological Centre suggests that rainfall in these regions was 108-114 percent above normal. August was the wettest month, when North India witnessed extreme monsoon fury, claiming hundreds of lives and causing damage worth crores of rupees.
Why So Much Rain?
Scientists believe the unusual rainfall in August was due to a rare combination of the Indian Monsoon and Western Disturbances colliding together.
Vikram Singh, former Director of Dehradun Meteorological Centre and currently Head of the Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai, also agreed. He said that this exact overlap caused heavy downpour in Uttarakhand. "Climate change has been causing unusual changes in weather systems for last several years. Similar conditions had triggered devastating floods in Uttarakhand in June 2013. Comparable situations were seen again in July 2024 and the same repeated this year in July and August," he added.
Impact Of Monsoon-Western Disturbance Clash
According to Singh, the collision of monsoon winds with western disturbances in North India, especially in the Central Himalayas, led to unusually heavy rainfall. This also explains the floods in Punjab. "When Indian monsoon winds and western disturbances clash, it results in extreme rainfall. That is why this year Uttarakhand, Himachal and Jammu & Kashmir recorded above normal rainfall, leading to floods both in Indian and Pakistani plains," he said.
Earlier, weather systems followed predictable patterns like the South-West monsoon (June-September) brought rain to most parts of India, the North-East monsoon (October-December) affected other regions, while the Western Disturbance usually came in winter, bringing snowfall that nourished Himalayan glaciers. But now, these systems are shifting due to climate change, Singh warned.
Wadia Institute's Big Claim: Monsoon Crossing Into Tibet
Meanwhile, a research delegation from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology has claimed that monsoon winds this year may have crossed the Himalayas into Tibet.
Senior Glacier Scientist at Wadia Institute, Manish Mehta, working with his team in the Zanskar region of Leh-Ladakh, posted his observations which drew attention of many. "This time, monsoon winds have been so intense that even the cold deserts of Ladakh, Himachal, Uttarakhand and Tibet are receiving rainfall. IMD satellite images clearly show monsoon winds cutting across the Himalayas into Tibet. Normally, Western Disturbances help the monsoon retreat, but right now they are silent," Mehta said.
Mehta explained that heat and rainfall are complementary. "More the heat, more is the rainfall. This year, excess moisture caused early snowfall in glacier areas. While snowfall is good for glaciers, the fragile Himalayas cannot handle extreme rain, increasing risks of landslides and floods."
He also pointed to La Nina, pollution and unplanned construction activities as possible reasons which triggered intensified monsoons this season.
The Wadia Institute has been studying the Zanskar region for the last 10 years, but Mehta said such rainfall and snowfall has never been recorded before. On August 24-25 , more than 100 mm rainfall and half a foot of snowfall were measured. Parkachik again received snowfall recently.
"For glaciers, this may be fine, but for humans it is dangerous. Development must be planned carefully. Such events will increase every year, so we need to remain alert," the glacier scientist said in a Facebook post.
Mehta shared these observations with his team from Rangdum (4015 metres above sea level).
Himalayan Weather System Changing
Veteran glacier scientist DP Dobhal, who has worked in the Himalayas for over 30 years, explained why the region is unique and why changes here are so worrying.
The Himalayas stretch 2400 km across India, filled with snow, forests and rivers. As many as 90 peaks including Mount Everest are above 7000 metres. Its vastness creates huge variations in climate and elevation.
Dobhal explained that the Himalayas depend on two moisture sources. "First being the Indian Monsoon (June-September) which brings rain, especially in lower areas. Second, the Western Disturbances during winter which bring snowfall, feeding glaciers," he said.
As per experts, monsoon winds hit the Himalayas from the Bay of Bengal but could not cross the high peaks. That is why the Himalayas acted as a natural barrier, ensuring rainfall stayed within India.
But Dobhal has warned, "Due to climate change and global warming, this weather system is now getting disturbed. Rainfall patterns and even rainfall areas are changing. Where only drizzle used to happen, now there is heavy rain. Where there was only snowfall, now there is rain."
This change in weather pattern, he said, is also why glaciers are melting faster.
Can Monsoon Really Cross Into Tibet?
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Dobhal said he has always studied monsoon rains within India, but he cannot fully dismiss Wadia Institute's latest claims.
"If the Wadia team is researching in the field and claims that monsoon winds have crossed into Tibet, they must be having evidence and data. It is possible that because western disturbances arrived earlier and collided with the Indian monsoon, the winds travelled higher and crossed the Himalayan peaks," Dobhal said.
He added that if this becomes a regular occurrence, the consequences will be alarming. "Faster glacier melt will worsen global warming. It will have severe impact on Himalayan ecosystems. Along with this, there will be heavy rainfall on fragile mountain slopes, consequently triggering landslides. This apart, valleys filled with loose sediments may collapse in floods. Also, treeline and alpine meadows (bugyals) above 2000 metres could face large-scale landslides," the senior scientist warned.
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