Can The Government Supply Enough Power During Peak Demand?

By Gautam Debroy

New Delhi: Against an expected rise of power demand across the country during summer, the Union Power Ministry is all set to meet the demand with increasing power generation capacity.

However, as India's electricity consumption surged by nearly 7 per cent to 148.48 billion units in March, 2025, due to rise in temperature, compared to 138.95 BU in March last year, a study 'Short-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (ST-NRAP)' compiled by National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) said that country's electricity demand is projected to peak at 273 gigawatts (GW) in June 2025.

"Energy shortages are more likely during non-solar hours from April to October 2025 and during early morning and evening hours from November 2025 to March 2026. May & June 2025 will emerge as the most critical month for potential load loss, with heightened risks also identified in July 2025 and October 2025," the study highlighted.

GRID-INDIA has released the Short-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (ST-NRAP) 2025-26, prepared by the NLDC in compliance with the Electricity (Amendment) Rules, 2023, and the Indian Electricity Grid Code, 2023.

The peak power demand

The peak power demand, representing the highest daily supply, also increased to 235.22 gigawatts last month, up from 221.68 GW in March 2024. According to the study, the highest peak demand of 273 GW is expected in June 2025, driven by increased cooling needs during the summer months. In contrast, the lowest electricity demand is projected at around 135 GW during December-January, when winter conditions reduce energy consumption for cooling.

Shifting planned outages to lower-demand months

May & June 2025 will emerge as the most critical month for potential load loss, with heightened risks also identified in July 2025 (best-case scenario) and October 2025 (median scenario).

The study identified high frequencies of forced and partial outages during peak shortage months, particularly in June, July and August 2025. To mitigate these risks, it is recommended to shift planned outages to lower-demand months such as December 2025 & January 2026.

Prediction from Indian Meteorological Department

According to the weather forecast predicted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country is expected to experience hotter-than-usual temperatures from April to June, with more heatwave days in central and eastern India and the northwestern plains.

"In April, most parts of India will likely witness higher-than-usual maximum temperatures. However, some areas in the extreme southern and the northwestern regions may experience normal temperatures," the IMD said.

It said that minimum temperatures will be higher than usual across most of the country, except for a few places in the northwest and the northeast where temperatures may be normal or slightly below normal.

Demand and supply of power from April to December

Against the requirement of 12,80,037 million units (MU) of power across the country between April to December in 2024, a total of 12,78,565 MU was supplied, registering a shortage of 1,472 MU (0.1 percent).

Uttar Pradesh with 1,32,357 MU requirement followed by Maharashtra 1,47,892 MU and Gujarat 1,13,697 are the top three states registering maximum requirement of energy during the period. Uttar Pradesh was provided with 1,32,058 MU followed by 1,47,834 MU in Maharashtra and 1,13,697 1,13,697 MU in Gujarat.

States and UTs including Lakshadweep (50 MU), Andaman & Nicobar (316 MU) and Sikkim (401 MU) registered with less requirement of power during the same period.

India witness increase in power generation capacity

As per government data available with ETV Bharat, India has witnessed a year by year increase in power generation capacity. India registered an increase in installed capacity from 2,48,554 MW in March 2014 to 4,70,448 MW in February 2025 including increase in installed capacity of coal based thermal power plants from 1,39,663 MW to 2,15,193 MW and Renewable Energy (RE) (including Large Hydro) from 75,519 MW to 2,14,678 MW during this period.

India also marks an addition of 2,01,088 circuit kilometer (ckm) of transmission lines, 7,78,017 MVA of Transformation capacity and 82,790 MW of Inter-Regional capacity with capability of transferring 1,18,740 MW from one corner of the country to another.

Adequate availability of power

The Ministry of Power also claimed that there is adequate availability of power in the country.

"Present installed generation capacity of the country is 470 GW. The Government of India has addressed the critical issue of power deficiency by adding 238 GW of generation capacity since April, 2014 transforming the country from power deficit to power sufficient. Further, addition of 2,01,088 circuit kilometer (ckm) of Transmission lines, 7,78,017 MVA of Transformation capacity and 82,790 MW of Inter-Regional capacity has been done since 2014 with capability of transferring 1,18,740 MW from one corner of the country to another," Minister of State in the Ministry of Power Sripad Yesso Naik has recently told in the Parliament.

He said that the gap between Energy Requirement and Energy Supplied has declined to marginal level of 0.1 per cent only during current year 2024-25 (upto February, 2025). Even this marginal gap between Energy Requirement and Energy Supplied is generally on account of constraints in the State transmission and distribution network.

Steps taken to ensure power generation capacity

In order to augment the power generation capacity, the power ministry has initiated several capacity addition programmes including setting up of an additional minimum 80,000 MW coal based capacity by 2031-32. Against this target, coal based capacity of 9,350 MW has already been commissioned in 2023-24 & 2024-25. 29,900 MW Thermal Capacity is under construction and contracts for 22,640 MW thermal capacity have been awarded in FY 2024-25. Further, 33,580 MW of coal and lignite based candidate capacity has been identified which is at various stages of planning in the country.

13,997.5 MW of Hydro Electric Projects are under construction. Further, 24,225.5 MW of Hydro Electric Projects are under various stages of planning and targeted to be completed by 2031-32.

Nuclear capacity is under construction

At least 7,300 MW of Nuclear Capacity is under construction and targeted to be completed by 2029-30. 7,000 MW of Nuclear Capacity is under various stages of planning and approval.

1,53,920 MW Renewable Capacity including 84,310 MW of Solar, 28,280 MW of Wind and 40,890 MW Hybrid power is under construction while 70,210 MW of Renewable Capacity including 46,670 MW of Solar, 600 MW of Wind and 22,940 MW Hybrid Power is at various stages of planning and targeted to be completed by 2029-30.

In energy storage systems, 13,050 MW/78,300 MWh Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs) are under construction/concurred and 14,970 MW/54,803 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) are currently under various stages of construction/bidding.

Energy storage system

In energy storage systems, 13,050 MW/78,300 MWh Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs) are under construction/concurred and 14,970 MW/54,803 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) are currently under various stages of construction/bidding.

A robust national grid has been established to facilitate the transfer of power from power surplus regions to power deficit regions. Addition of 2,01,088 circuit kilometer (ckm) of Transmission lines, 7,78,017 MVA of Transformation capacity and 82,790 MW of Inter-Regional capacity has been done since 2014 with capability of transferring 1,18,740 MW from one corner of the country to another. The capacity of National Grid is being expanded on a continuous basis commensurate with the growth in electricity generation and electricity demand.

Reducing gap between unit cost of supply and unit rate of realization

In order to reduce the gap between unit cost of supply and unit rate of realization, the power ministry has taken number initiatives. A Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) has been launched with the objective of improving the quality and reliability of power through a financially sustainable and operationally efficient Distribution Sector. The release of funds under the scheme is linked to States and Distribution Utilities taking necessary measures for improving their financial performance including the improvements made in parameters of Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) losses and the Gap between Average Cost of Supply (ACoS) and Average Revenue Realised (ARR).

Electricity consumption expected to triple by 2050

As per the World Energy Outlook 2024 published by International Energy Agency, India would become third largest electricity consumer in the world by the year 2050 on the back of growth in demand of over four per cent a year in all scenarios. According to the report, India is poised to experience more energy demand growth than any other country over the next decade. It also indicates that India will have the world's third-largest installed battery storage capacity in place by 2030 to accommodate the rising share of variable renewables.

Revamping power distribution system

The Centre has approved a Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme - a reforms-based and results-linked scheme with an outlay of Rs 3,03,758 crore over a period of five years from 2021-22 to 2025-26 with the objective to improve the quality, reliability and affordability of power supply to consumers through a financially sustainable and operationally efficient distribution sector.

The scheme aims to reduce the AT&C losses to pan-India levels of 12-15 per cent and ACS-ARR gap to zero by 2024-25 by improving the operational efficiencies and financial sustainability of all DISCOMs/ Power Departments excluding Private Sector DISCOMs.

Government’s claim does not match with the reality

Chairman of the All India Power Engineers Federation (AIPEF) Shailendra Dubey told ETV Bharat that the government can generate power but its distribution and transmission system is not adequate to face the peak demand.

"Government can't provide continuous power 24-hours a day. Availability of electricity is not the only factor. Transmission system is not augmented to carry the load of 270 GW during summer. The distribution process is also not adequate, all are overloaded," said Dubey. According to Dubey, the Government's claim does not match with reality. "Hydro electric generation also decreased during summer whereas reservoirs also become empty," said Dubey.

Given the stress on power grids during summer, Dubey said that distribution companies need to adopt similar demand response mechanisms to reduce peak demand.

"Households, industries and other consumers should be offered the option of reducing the use of electrical equipment based on real-time electricity demand, helping to balance the grid during periods of peak demand," he said.